“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设政策对制造业能源消费强度的影响分析

Impact Assessment of “Made in China 2025” Pilot Demonstration City Initiative on Manufacturing Energy Consumption Intensity

摘要: 制造业能源消费管控是我国实现“双碳”目标与经济高质量发展的关键抓手，“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设政策作为推动制造业绿色转型的国家级产业政策，其能源消费效应亟待评估。本文以2010~2023年中国234个城市为样本，将该政策视为准自然实验，采用渐进双重差分模型及空间杜宾模型等方法，实证分析其对制造业能源消费强度的影响、异质性、调节机制及空间溢出效应。研究发现：(1) 政策显著降低了试点城市制造业能源消费强度，平均降幅达49.5%，该结论经多种稳健性检验仍然成立；(2) 政策效果存在异质性，在东部城市、非资源型城市、高工业化城市及环保重点城市的节能效果更为突出；(3) 政府财政压力负向调节、但城市金融发展正向调节政策节能效果；(4) 城市制造业能源消费强度存在显著空间正相关性，政策不仅抑制本地制造业能源消费强度，还通过负向空间溢出效应降低邻近及经济关联地区的能耗，且技术创新在这一空间溢出过程中发挥了正向调节作用，促进区域协同节能。本研究为评估国家级产业政策的能源效应评估提供了实证依据，也为协同推进制造业绿色低碳转型、优化政策支撑体系提供了针对性启示。

Abstract: Energy consumption control in manufacturing is vital for China’s “dual carbon” goals and high-quality development. The “Made in China 2025” pilot demonstration city Initiative aims to drive green transformation in manufacturing, but its energy impact remains underassessed. Using data from 234 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2023 and treating the policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper applies models such as a phased difference-in-differences model and a spatial Durbin model to examine its effects on manufacturing energy consumption intensity, heterogeneity, regulatory mechanisms, and spatial spillovers. Key findings are as follows: (1) The policy significantly cuts manufacturing energy consumption intensity in pilot cities, by an average of 49.5%, and this result robust to multiple robustness tests; (2) The policy effects are heterogeneous: stronger in eastern, non-resource-based, highly industrialized, and environmentally prioritized cities; (3) Government fiscal pressure weakens while urban financial development enhances the policy’s energy-saving effect; (4) Manufacturing energy consumption intensity exhibits significant spatial positive correlation. The policy not only reduces local energy consumption intensity but also lowers consumption intensity in neighboring and economically linked regions via negative spatial spillovers, wherein technological innovation exerts a positive moderating effect, fostering regional collaborative energy conservation. This study provides empirical evidence for evaluating national industrial policies’ energy impacts and offers targeted insights for advancing green, low-carbon manufacturing transformation and optimizing policy support.