基于房间级热负荷预测的供热系统按需通断控制方法

Adaptive Switching Control in District Heating Systems Enabled by Room-Level Thermal Load Forecasting

摘要: 现有供暖系统多采用传统反馈控制，响应迟缓且难以适应动态热负荷变化，其统一调控策略亦忽视了房间级热需求的空间差异性，导致能源浪费与热舒适度不足。为此，本文提出一种基于空间分布特性的动态负荷预测与末端控制方法。通过预测建筑整体负荷并分摊至各房间，结合区域热惯性差异对末端单元进行分类，并采用启停补偿策略优化阀门时序，实现精准按需供热。实验表明，预测模型平均误差较低，NMBE与CVRMSE指标均符合标准要求，房间平均温度稳定于18℃，验证了该方法在提升系统能效与热舒适性方面的有效性。

Abstract: Conventional heating systems predominantly rely on traditional feedback control mechanisms, which exhibit delayed responses and struggle to adapt to dynamic thermal load fluctuations. Their uniform control strategies also fail to account for spatial variations in room-level heating demands, resulting in energy inefficiencies and suboptimal thermal comfort. To address these limitations, this paper introduces a dynamic load forecasting and terminal control method based on spatial distribution characteristics. By predicting the building’s overall thermal load and distributing it among individual rooms, and further classifying terminal units according to zonal thermal inertia differences, the approach employs on-off compensation strategies to optimize valve operation sequences. This enables precise, on-demand heat supply. Experimental results demonstrate that the forecasting model achieves a low mean error, with both NMBE and CVRMSE indices conforming to standard requirements. The average room temperature remains stable at 18˚C, validating the effectiveness of the proposed method in enhancing both energy efficiency and thermal comfort.