大型基础设施建设投资控制的定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Investment Control in Large-Scale Infrastructure Construction

摘要: 大型基础设施建设是支撑国民经济高质量发展的重要基础，其投资规模较大、周期较长、影响因素也较为复杂，投资控制工作的难度较高。概算超出估算、预算超出概算的状况、结算超出预算的情况在行业当中普遍存在。文章基于管理工程理论视角，系统梳理委托代理、全生命周期成本以及制度经济学理论在投资控制领域当中的应用逻辑，构建了包含项目管理、融资结构、设计深度、政策环境以及技术创新五个维度的理论分析框架。借助2018~2022年我国30个省(市、区)的面板数据，构建固定效应回归模型开展定量分析，识别各个因素对于投资控制效果带来的影响程度。实证结果显示，项目管理水平与技术创新投入对投资偏差率具有显著负向影响。而融资结构中债务融资占比过高、设计变更率提升以及政策不确定性增强，会显著加剧投资超支情况。基于上述实证结论，提出推行设计施工总承包(EPC模式)、建立重大设计变更独立第三方评估机制、优化投融资结构、构建政策不确定性应对机制等方面的管理工程对策，以期为提高基础设施建设投资方面的效益、规范投资的管理提供理论上的支撑以及实践的参考。

Abstract: Large-scale infrastructure construction serves as an important foundation supporting the high-quality development of the national economy. It features large investment scales, long cycles and complex influencing factors, leading to considerable difficulties in investment control. Problems such as budget estimates exceeding preliminary estimates, budgetary estimates exceeding budget estimates, and final accounts exceeding budgetary estimates are widespread in the industry. From the perspective of management engineering theory, this paper systematically sorts out the application logic of principal-agent theory, life-cycle cost theory, and institutional economics theory in the field of investment control, and constructs a theoretical analysis framework covering five dimensions: project management, financing structure, design depth, policy environment, and technological innovation. Using panel data of 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2018 to 2022, this paper establishes a fixed-effect regression model to conduct quantitative analysis and identify the impact degrees of various factors on the effectiveness of investment control. The empirical results show that project management capability and investment in technological innovation exert a significant negative impact on the investment deviation rate. Conversely, excessive debt financing proportions in the capital structure, increased design change rates, and heightened policy uncertainty significantly exacerbate investment overruns. In view of the empirical findings, this paper proposes management engineering countermeasures, including implementing the Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) model, establishing an independent third-party evaluation mechanism for major design changes, optimizing the investment and financing structure, and building a response mechanism for policy uncertainty. These countermeasures aim to provide theoretical support and practical references for improving the efficiency of infrastructure construction investment and standardizing investment management.