城中村火灾人员疏散安全评价与治理对策研究——基于组合赋权–云模型的实证分析

Research on Safety Evaluation and Governance Countermeasures of Evacuation in Urban Village Fires—An Empirical Analysis Based on Combined Weighting-Cloud Model

摘要: 城中村建筑密度高、人口流动性大且消防基础设施薄弱，火灾疏散安全形势严峻。科学、精准的安全评价是实施有效风险管控的前提。针对传统评价方法在权重分配和信息不确定性处理上的不足，研究引入“组合赋权–云模型”集成方法，对深圳市某典型城中村进行实证分析。首先，基于事故致因理论，构建了包含“人员因素”、“疏散设施状况”、“应急管理水平”及“场所环境安全”4个维度、18项指标的评价体系。其次，采用层次分析法(AHP)与变异系数法分别获取主、客观权重，并通过最小二乘优化模型求得综合权重。最后，运用云模型处理专家评价中的模糊性与随机性，生成综合评价云。实证结果表明：该城中村火灾疏散安全综合云期望值(E_x)为63.2，安全等级为“一般”；其中，“疏散设施状况”与“场所环境安全”是风险短板，权重高且得分低，尤其是“电动自行车充电管理”与“疏散通道状况”问题突出。基于量化评价结果，从工程改造、管理强化、意识提升三个层面提出了针对性的治理对策，为同类区域的消防安全精准治理提供了决策依据。

Abstract: Urban villages are characterized by high building density, high population mobility, and inadequate fire protection infrastructure, resulting in a severe fire evacuation safety situation. Conducting scientific and accurate safety evaluations is the prerequisite for implementing effective risk management and control. Aiming at the shortcomings of traditional evaluation methods in weight distribution and information uncertainty processing, this study introduces the integrated “combined weighting-cloud model” method and conducts an empirical analysis on a typical urban village in Shenzhen City. First, based on the accident causation theory, an evaluation system containing 18 indicators across four dimensions, namely “human factors”, “status of evacuation facilities”, “emergency management capability”, and “site environment safety”, was constructed. Second, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Coefficient of Variation Method were used to obtain subjective and objective weights, respectively, and the comprehensive weights were calculated through the least squares optimization model. Finally, the cloud model was adopted to address the fuzziness and randomness in expert evaluation, so as to generate the comprehensive evaluation cloud. The empirical results show that the expected value (E_x) of the comprehensive cloud for fire evacuation safety of the urban village is 63.2, corresponding to a safety rating of “Average”. Among the dimensions, “status of evacuation facilities” and “site environment safety” are the key risk weaknesses, with high weights but low scores; in particular, the problems of “electric bicycle charging management” and “evacuation passage conditions” are prominent. Based on the quantitative evaluation results, this study puts forward targeted governance countermeasures from three aspects: engineering renovation, management enhancement, and safety awareness improvement, which provide a decision-making basis for the precise fire safety governance of similar areas.