新质生产力对黄河流域资源型城市碳排放效率的影响研究

Research on the Impact of New Quality Productive Forces on Carbon Emission Efficiency of Resource Based Cities in the Yellow River Basin

摘要: 在双碳目标与黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展双重战略背景下，提升资源型城市碳排放效率是破解碳减排困境的关键。本文以2010~2023年黄河流域36个资源型城市面板数据为样本，构建新质生产力评价指标体系，运用超效率SBM模型测算碳排放效率，实证检验新质生产力对碳排放效率的影响及作用机制。结果表明：新质生产力显著提升黄河流域资源型城市碳排放效率，经稳健性检验后结论依然成立。异质性显示，新质生产力减排效应在上游城市最显著，中游城市次之，下游呈负向效应；仅再生型城市提升效应显著。机制检验证实，产业结构升级与绿色技术创新是重要中介路径。研究为黄河流域资源型城市依托新质生产力实现绿色低碳转型提供理论支撑与政策参考。

Abstract: Against the dual strategic backdrop of the dual carbon goals and the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, enhancing carbon emission efficiency in resource-based cities is key to overcoming the dilemma of carbon emission reduction. This paper uses panel data from 36 resource-based cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2023 as a sample to construct an evaluation index system for new quality productive forces, employs the super-efficiency SBM model to measure carbon emission efficiency, and empirically tests the impact and mechanism of new quality productive forces on carbon emission efficiency. The results show that new quality productive forces significantly enhances the carbon emission efficiency of resource-based cities in the Yellow River Basin, and this conclusion remains valid after robustness checks. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the emission-reduction effect of new quality productive forces is most pronounced in upstream cities, followed by midstream cities, while downstream cities exhibit a negative effect, with only regenerative cities showing significant improvement. Mechanism tests confirm that industrial structure upgrading and green technology innovation are important mediating paths. This study provides theoretical support and policy references for resource-based cities in the Yellow River Basin to achieve green and low-carbon transformation relying on new quality productive forces.