碳关税壁垒下跨境电商供应链协同减排微分博弈研究

Research on Differential Game of Collaborative Emission Reduction in Cross-Border E-Commerce Supply Chain under Carbon Tariff Barrier

摘要: 在全球碳中和战略推进与欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)正式实施的背景下，碳关税已然成为制约跨境电商贸易发展的关键因素。针对当前跨境电商供应链存在的主体协同性不足、减排投入意愿偏低等现实问题，文章引入管理工程的系统优化与协同治理理论，将绿色合规资产设定为动态变量，构建由国内制造商与海外零售商构成的跨境电商供应链微分博弈模型，设计“双向成本分担”协同契约，并通过算例仿真验证契约有效性。研究结果表明，分散决策模式下易出现主体“搭便车”、减排投入不足等问题，所设计契约能够实现供应链整体效益的帕累托改进；碳关税强度对供应链减排行为呈现“倒U型”影响特征，消费者绿色偏好与减排转化系数可有效推动绿色合规资产积累。研究可为跨境电商供应链实现协同减排提供理论依据与实践参考。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of advancing global carbon neutrality strategies and the official implementation of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), carbon tariffs have emerged as a critical factor constraining the development of cross-border e-commerce trade. To address the current practical issues of insufficient collaboration among entities and low willingness to invest in emission reduction within cross-border e-commerce supply chains, this paper introduces the system optimization and collaborative governance theories of management engineering. By setting green compliance assets as a dynamic variable, this study constructs a differential game model for a cross-border e-commerce supply chain comprising domestic manufacturers and overseas retailers, designs a “two-way cost-sharing” collaborative contract, and verifies its effectiveness through numerical simulation. The research results indicate that the decentralized decision-making mode is prone to issues such as “free-riding” and insufficient investment in emission reduction, whereas the designed contract can achieve a Pareto improvement in the overall performance of the supply chain. Furthermore, the intensity of the carbon tariff exerts an “inverted U-shaped” impact on the supply chain’s emission reduction behavior, while consumer green preferences and the emission reduction conversion coefficient can effectively drive the accumulation of green compliance assets. This research provides theoretical foundations and practical references for cross-border e-commerce supply chains to achieve collaborative emission reduction.