1980~2024年门源地区极端气温指数对青稞不同生长时期的影响

The Effect of Extreme Temperature Index on Different Growth Periods of Highland Barley in Menyuan Area from 1980 to 2024

摘要: 为揭示极端气温与青稞产量构成因子之间的动态关联机制，同时为门源地区极端气温指数在不同生长阶段的具体阈值、作用方向及相对贡献进行定量评估，基于门源国家基本气象站1980~2024年逐日气温数据，使用气候诊断法、M-K突变检验等方法，分析极端气温变化对当地青稞生长发育及产量的影响。结果表明：霜日日数(FD)长期递减、冷夜日数(TN10P)波动减小，突变点分别为2002年、2001年；暖日持续指数(WSDI)振荡显著，2011年、2013年、2020年为突变点且2020年后突变加剧；夏日日数(SU)波动增大(2000年突变)，暖昼日数(TX90P) 1997年前波动减小、后波动增大(2001~2002年突变，2002年后更显著)；FD中位数约220，数据分布范围最大且存在高值离群点。极端气温指数对青稞营养生长期(播种期、出苗期、三叶期)波动影响显著，分蘖期较稳定；生殖生长期孕穗期波动与FD变化相关，乳熟–成熟期波动平缓，千粒重与成穗率变化一致。FD、TN10P与多数青稞物候期呈正相关，与结实粒数显著负相关；TX90P、SU、WSDI与各物候期呈负相关，其中TX90P、SU与结实粒数显著正相关。

Abstract: In order to reveal the dynamic correlation mechanism between extreme temperature and yield components of highland barley, and to quantitatively evaluate the specific threshold, action direction and relative contribution of extreme temperature index at different growth stages in Menyuan area, based on the daily temperature data of Menyuan National Basic Meteorological Station from 1980 to 2024, the effects of extreme temperature changes on the growth and yield of local highland barley were analyzed by using climate diagnosis method and M-K mutation test. The results showed that the number of frost days (FD) decreased for a long time, and the fluctuation of cold night days (TN10P) decreased, and the mutation points were 2002 and 2001, respectively. The warm day duration index (WSDI) oscillates significantly, with 2011, 2013 and 2020 as the mutation points and the mutation is intensified after 2020. The fluctuation of summer days (SU) increased (abrupt change in 2000), and the fluctuation of warm days (TX90P) decreased before 1997 and increased after 1997 (abrupt change in 2001~2002, more significant after 2002). The median of FD is about 220, and the data distribution range is the largest and there are high-value outliers. The extreme temperature index had a significant effect on the fluctuation of the nutritional growth period (sowing period, seedling stage and three-leaf stage) of highland barley, and the tillering stage was relatively stable. The fluctuation of booting stage in reproductive growth period was related to the change of FD, and the fluctuation of milk maturity-maturity stage was gentle, and the change of 1000-grain weight was consistent with that of panicle rate. FD and TN10 P were positively correlated with most phenophases of highland barley, and negatively correlated with the number of grains. TX90P, SU and WSDI were negatively correlated with each phenophase, and TX90P and SU were significantly positively correlated with the number of grains.