C波段天气雷达在一次区域性暴雨过程中的回波演变及预报应用分析

Analysis on the Echo Evolution and Forecast Application of C-Band Weather Radar in a Regional Rainstorm

摘要: 针对区域性暴雨过程短时临近预报中强降水落区识别不准、演变把握不及时等问题，选取一次典型区域性暴雨天气过程，基于C波段天气雷达资料，对降水回波的生成、发展、合并、增强等的进行系统分析，并结合环境场背景探讨其在暴雨预报业务中的指示意义。结果表明，C波段天气雷达能够较清晰揭示强降水回波的结构演变、移动路径与阶段性突变特征，对识别中小尺度对流系统发展趋势、判定强降水中心演变方向等方面具有重要应用价值。研究进一步总结区域性暴雨过程中雷达回波演变的业务判识要点，可为提升暴雨精细化监测预警和预报服务能力提供参考。

Abstract: In view of the problems such as inaccurate identification of heavy rainfall falling areas and untimely grasp of evolution in the short-term approaching forecast of regional rainstorm process, a typical regional rainstorm weather process was selected, and based on the C-band weather radar data, the generation, development, combination and enhancement of precipitation echoes were systematically analyzed, and its indication significance in rainstorm forecast was discussed in combination with the background of environmental field. The results indicate that the C-band weather radar can clearly reveal the structural evolution, movement path, and stage mutation characteristics of heavy precipitation echoes, which has important application value in identifying the development trend of small and medium-sized convective systems and determining the direction of heavy precipitation center evolution. The study further summarizes the operational identification points of radar echo evolution in the process of regional rainstorm, which can provide reference for improving the precision monitoring, early warning and forecasting service capacity of rainstorm.