中国居民消费价格指数结构差异的成因探析——基于食品与总指数对比

An Analysis of the Causes of Structural Disparities in China’s Consumer Price Index—Based on a Comparison between the Food Sub-Index and the Overall Index

摘要: 准确识别核心通胀影响因素并揭示区域异质性，是实施精准宏观调控、防范结构性价格风险的关键。本文基于2024年中国31个省级行政区截面数据，构建三层递进分析框架，创新提出核心CPI代理模型，以计量控制替代传统统计剔除，实现食品通胀与核心通胀统一分析；采用东中西部多元回归与东北地区特征分析的分层策略，结合交互效应模型检验区域异质性，并检验服务性消费占比的中介效应。研究表明：核心CPI代理模型解释力最优；食品CPI对核心CPI的正向驱动具有区域普适性；人均收入直接效应不显著，城镇化率与财政支出的影响呈东西中部依次递减梯度特征；东北地区食品与总通胀相关性显著偏高；服务性消费占比在收入影响核心通胀过程中的中介效应不显著。

Abstract: Accurately identifying the influencing factors of core inflation and revealing regional heterogeneity are crucial for implementing targeted macroeconomic regulation and preventing structural price risks. Based on the 2024 cross-sectional data of the 31 provincial-level administrative divisions in China, this paper constructs a three-tier progressive analytical framework and innovatively proposes a core CPI proxy model. By replacing traditional statistical exclusion with econometric control, this study unifies the analysis of food inflation and core inflation. A stratified strategy is adopted: multiple regression for the eastern, central and western regions and characteristic analysis for Northeast China, combined with an interaction effect model to test regional heterogeneity, and the mediating effect of service consumption share is also examined. The results show that the core CPI proxy model has the optimal explanatory power; the positive driving effect of food CPI on core CPI is regionally universal; the direct effect of per capita income is insignificant, while urbanization rate and fiscal expenditure show a decreasing gradient from the eastern to the western and central regions. The correlation between food inflation and overall inflation in Northeast China is significantly higher, and the mediating effect of service consumption share in the impact of income on core inflation is insignificant.