从疾病发生到健康损失：中国及不同SDI地区尿路结石疾病负担变化及趋势预测
From Disease Occurrence to Health Loss: Changes and Trend Projections in the Burden of Urolithiasis in China and Regions with Different SDI Levels
DOI: 10.12677/pi.2026.153029, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 范德君, 杨 立：大理大学临床医学院，云南 大理
关键词: 尿路结石；疾病负担；年龄标准化率；社会人口学指数；ARIMA模型；Urolithiasis； Disease Burden； Age-Standardized Rate； SDI； ARIMA Model
摘要: 目的：分析1990~2021年中国及不同SDI地区尿路结石疾病负担变化趋势，并预测未来发展趋势。方法：基于GBD数据库，提取1990~2021年中国及不同SDI地区尿路结石ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR数据，按地区及性别进行分层分析，并采用ARIMA模型进行趋势预测。结果：1990~2021年，中国尿路结石ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR总体均呈下降趋势，其中ASMR和ASDR下降更为明显。男性各项指标普遍高于女性。不同SDI地区疾病负担存在明显异质性：高SDI地区ASIR和ASPR较高，中SDI地区ASMR和ASDR相对较高，低SDI及低–中SDI地区部分指标改善幅度有限。ARIMA预测结果显示，未来中国ASIR和ASPR仍呈下降趋势，而ASMR和ASDR总体维持低水平稳定；但高–中SDI、中SDI及高SDI地区ASIR和ASPR可能出现不同程度上升。结论：中国尿路结石年龄标准化疾病负担总体呈下降趋势，但不同地区及不同性别人群之间仍存在差异。未来应加强重点人群和重点地区的综合防控。
Abstract: Objective: To analyze the trends in the burden of urolithiasis in China and regions with different SDI levels from 1990 to 2021, and to project future trends. Methods: Based on the GBD database, data on ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR of urolithiasis in China and regions with different SDI levels from 1990 to 2021 were extracted. Stratified analyses were performed by region and sex, and future trends were projected using the ARIMA model. Results: From 1990 to 2021, ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR of urolithiasis in China all showed overall declining trends, with more pronounced decreases in ASMR and ASDR. All indicators were generally higher in males than in females. Marked heterogeneity in disease burden was observed across regions with different SDI levels: high-SDI regions had higher ASIR and ASPR, middle-SDI regions had relatively higher ASMR and ASDR, and improvements in some indicators were limited in low-SDI and low-middle-SDI regions. ARIMA projections indicated that China’s ASIR and ASPR would continue to decline in the future, while ASMR and ASDR would remain stable at relatively low levels; however, ASIR and ASPR may increase to varying extents in high-middle-SDI, middle-SDI, and high-SDI regions. Conclusion: The age-standardized burden of urolithiasis in China generally showed a declining trend, but disparities persisted across regions and between sexes. Comprehensive prevention and control strategies should be strengthened for key populations and priority regions in the future.
文章引用：范德君, 杨立. 从疾病发生到健康损失：中国及不同SDI地区尿路结石疾病负担变化及趋势预测[J]. 药物资讯, 2026, 15(3): 262-270. https://doi.org/10.12677/pi.2026.153029

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