绿色制氢技术在中国的应用与经济性分析

Application and Economic Analysis of Green Hydrogen Production Technology in China

摘要: 在全球积极应对气候变化、大力推动能源结构深度转型的大背景下，绿色制氢已成为实现深度脱碳的关键技术路径。本文围绕中国绿色制氢产业现状，系统梳理了碱性电解水、质子交换膜电解水、固体氧化物电解水等技术的发展阶段、技术特征与产业化进展，并结合相关政策环境与产业格局开展研究。目前，绿色制氢在全国范围内尚未全面具备对化石能源制氢的成本竞争力，但在设备成本下降、可再生能源装机规模持续扩大以及政策支持共同推动下，经济性拐点正逐步临近。因此，探讨绿氢规模化应用潜力与成本变化趋势，对政策设计和产业布局具有重要的现实意义。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the world’s active response to climate change and vigorous promotion of the deep transformation of the energy structure, green hydrogen production has become a key technical path to achieve deep decarbonization. This article focuses on the current situation of China’s green hydrogen production industry, systematically sorts out the development stages, technical characteristics and industrialization progress of technologies such as alkaline electrolyzed water, proton exchange membrane electrolyzed water and solid oxide electrolyzed water, and conducts research in combination with relevant policy environments and industrial patterns. At present, green hydrogen production has not yet fully gained cost competitiveness over hydrogen production from fossil fuels across the country. However, driven by the decline in equipment costs, the continuous expansion of renewable energy installations, and policy support, the economic turning point is gradually approaching. Therefore, exploring the potential for large-scale application of green hydrogen and the trend of cost changes is of great practical significance for policy design and industrial layout.