电价市场化改革、价格传导机制与新能源企业盈利弹性——基于大唐新能源的准自然实验分析

Electricity Price Marketization Reform, Price Transmission Mechanism, and Profit Elasticity of New Energy Enterprises—A Quasi-Natural Experiment Analysis Based on Datang New Energy

摘要: 双碳目标下电价市场化加速推进，风电产业面临收益不确定性挑战。本文以大唐新能源为研究对象，采用文献研究、财务数据分析与案例研究方法，系统考察2020~2025年电价市场化改革对其财务绩效的影响路径与动态效应。研究发现，改革后大唐新能源平均上网电价从0.43元/千瓦时降至0.36元/千瓦时，毛利率下降4.2个百分点，净资产收益率(ROE)从7.5%降至6.0%。通过构建“政策冲击–业务调整–财务响应”分析框架，揭示市场化交易占比提升是导致财务绩效下滑的核心因素，且存在“收入波动性加剧→成本刚性约束→盈利空间压缩”的传导机制。研究建议企业通过优化交易策略、强化成本管控、创新风险对冲工具等方式提升市场化适应能力，为新能源行业应对电价改革提供理论参考与实践启示。

Abstract: Under the dual-carbon objectives, the marketization of electricity prices is accelerating, posing a challenge of revenue uncertainty for the wind power industry. This paper takes Datang New Energy as the research object and uses literature review, financial data analysis, and case study methods to systematically examine the impact path and dynamic effects of electricity price marketization reform on its financial performance from 2020 to 2025. The study finds that after the reform, Datang New Energy’s average on-grid electricity price decreased from RMB 0.43/kWh to RMB 0.36/kWh, its gross profit margin decreased by 4.2 percentage points, and its return on equity (ROE) decreased from 7.5% to 6.0%. By constructing an analytical framework of “policy shock-business adjustment-financial response”, the study reveals that the increase in the proportion of market-based transactions is the core factor leading to the decline in financial performance, and that there is a transmission mechanism of “increased revenue volatility → rigid cost constraints → compressed profit margins”. The study recommends that enterprises improve their market adaptability by optimizing trading strategies, strengthening cost control, and innovating risk hedging tools, providing theoretical reference and practical insights for the new energy industry to cope with electricity price reforms.