基于SWAT与Ca-Markov的地下水补给量对土地利用变化的响应研究——以唐河流域下游为例

Study on the Response of Groundwater Recharge to Land Use Change Based on SWAT and Ca-Markov Models —A Case Study of the Lower Reaches of Tanghe River Basin

摘要: 土地利用变化深刻影响地下水补给时空格局，尤其在人类活动剧烈且水资源供需矛盾突出的地区表现更为复杂。开展土地利用变化对地下水补给量的影响研究，有利于揭示地下水补给对土地利用变化的响应规律，为区域地下水资源可持续利用与国土空间优化提供科学依据。本文以唐河流域下游为研究区，基于DEM、土地利用、土壤、气象水文等多源数据构建SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型；系统分析1985~2025年五期土地利用变化特征；设置三种极端土地利用情景，并构建Ca-Markov模型，设置两种2035年未来土地利用情景，模拟地下水补给量变化。结果表明：2025年土地利用下多年平均地下水补给量为2054.84万m³，相比1985年土地利用下降了668.36万m³；土地利用类型对地下水补给量的影响排序依次为草地 > 林地 > 耕地；未来规划约束情景下2035年补给量为1976.58万m³，显著高于自然延续情景的1637.11万m³。通过优化用地结构有效提升地下水补给能力，为流域水资源可持续管理提供依据。

Abstract: Land use change has a profound impact on the temporal and spatial pattern of groundwater recharge, especially in areas where human activities are intense and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is prominent. The research on the impact of land use change on groundwater recharge will help reveal the response law of groundwater recharge to land use change, and provide a scientific basis for the sustainable use of regional groundwater resources and land space optimization. Taking the lower reaches of the Tanghe River Basin as the research area, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model is constructed based on multi-source data such as DEM, land use, soil, meteorology and hydrology; The characteristics of land use change in five periods from 1985 to 2025 were systematically analyzed; Three extreme land use scenarios are set up, and the CA Markov model is constructed. Two future land use scenarios in 2035 are set up to simulate the change in groundwater recharge. The results show that the average annual groundwater recharge under land use in 2025 is 20.5484 million m³, which is 6.6836 million m³ lower than that in 1985; The influence of land use types on groundwater recharge ranked as grassland > woodland > farmland; The supply volume in 2035 under the future planning constraint scenario is 19.7658 million m³, which is significantly higher than 16.3711 million m³ under the natural continuation scenario. By optimizing the land use structure, the groundwater recharge capacity can be effectively improved, which provides a basis for the sustainable management of water resources in the basin.