人口老龄化背景下消费结构变迁与银发经济发展研究

Research on Consumption Structure Changes and the Development of the Silver Economy in the Context of Population Aging

摘要: 人口老龄化持续深化正在重塑居民消费结构，并对银发经济发展产生深层影响。本文基于相关文献与理论分析，从生命周期变化、消费偏好转移、预防性储蓄及家庭结构调整等维度，探讨人口老龄化影响消费结构并进而驱动银发经济发展的内在逻辑。研究发现，人口老龄化所引发的消费变化并不主要表现为总量增减，而更集中体现为消费重心由生存型向健康型、服务型和品质型转移，这一过程为银发经济提供了新的需求基础、供给导向和业态空间。同时，银发经济发展仍面临供给适配不足、市场体系不完善、消费能力约束和数字鸿沟等现实问题。为此，应从供需协同、制度完善、能力提升与数字包容等方面统筹推进，进一步促进银发经济高质量发展。

Abstract: The deepening of population aging is reshaping residents’ consumption structure and exerting a profound impact on the development of the silver economy. Based on relevant literature and theoretical analysis, this paper explores the internal logic through which population aging influences consumption structure and further drives the development of the silver economy from the perspectives of life-cycle changes, shifts in consumption preferences, precautionary savings, and adjustments in family structure. The study finds that the changes in consumption brought about by population aging are reflected not primarily in changes in overall consumption volume, but more prominently in the shift of consumption priorities from subsistence-oriented consumption to health-related, service-oriented, and quality-oriented consumption. This process provides a new demand foundation, supply orientation, and industrial space for the development of the silver economy. At the same time, the development of the silver economy still faces practical constraints, including insufficient supply adaptation, an underdeveloped market system, limited consumption capacity among older adults, and the digital divide. Therefore, coordinated efforts should be made in promoting supply-demand coordination, improving institutional arrangements, enhancing consumption capacity, and advancing digital inclusion, so as to further facilitate the high-quality development of the silver economy.