数智赋能下银发经济服务“供需匹配–协同治理–效果评估”一体化机制研究

Research on the Integrated Mechanism of “Supply-Demand Matching - Collaborative Governance - Effectiveness Evaluation” for Silver Economy Services Empowered by Digital Intelligence

摘要: 数智赋能背景下，我国银发经济服务已迈入从规模扩张转向质量提升、从分散供给转向系统治理、从项目驱动转向长效运行的关键转型阶段。面对人口深度老龄化与消费需求多元化的双重趋势，传统以平台建设、硬件投入、数量增长为主的发展模式难以为继，亟须构建更加精准、协同、闭环的现代化治理体系。本文基于文献梳理与官方数据，构建“供需匹配–协同治理–效果评估”一体化分析框架，系统阐释数智化赋能银发经济服务的内在逻辑与现实困境，为破解供需错位、协同不足、评价缺位等突出问题提供理论解释与分析视角。在此基础上，本文进一步构建以数智赋能系数、供需匹配度、协同治理效率和效果评估水平为核心变量的简化绩效模型。模型结果表明，四类变量均对银发经济服务综合绩效产生显著正向作用，且存在明显的短板约束效应。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of digital-intelligent empowerment, China’s silver economy services have entered a critical transitional stage, shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement, from fragmented supply to systematic governance, and from project-driven operation to long-term sustainable development. Faced with the dual trends of deep population aging and diversified consumption demands, the traditional development model characterized by platform construction, hardware investment, and quantitative growth is no longer sustainable. There is an urgent need to build a more precise, coordinated, and closed-loop modern governance system. Based on literature review and official data, this paper constructs an integrated analytical framework of “supply-demand matching, collaborative governance, and effectiveness evaluation”, systematically explains the internal logic and practical dilemmas of digital-intelligent empowerment for silver economy services, and provides a theoretical interpretation and analytical perspective for solving prominent problems such as supply-demand mismatch, insufficient collaboration, and evaluation vacancy. On this basis, a simplified performance model with core variables including digital-intelligent empowerment coefficient, supply-demand matching degree, collaborative governance efficiency and effectiveness evaluation level is further constructed. The model results show that the four variables all have a significant positive effect on the comprehensive performance of silver economy services, and there is an obvious short-board constraint effect.