研究生人力资本与经济高质量发展的耦合协调与预测研究

Research on the Coupling Coordination and Prediction of Postgraduate Human Capital and High-Quality Economic Development

摘要: 研究生人力资本是推动社会生产和技术进步的重要力量，但由于研究生人力资本供给结构性失衡、空间分布的非均衡性以及对经济增长的总体贡献率还不高，导致两者在发展中存在不协调。本文基于2012~2021年我国30个省级行政区的数据，测度研究生人力资本与经济高质量发展的耦合协调度，分析其空间特征、升级趋势并尝试提出差异化的区域发展建议。研究结论包括：① 2012~2021年我国研究生人力资本与经济高质量发展耦合协调度呈波动上升趋势，多数省市向不同程度协调模式升级，并呈“T”字型结构。② 耦合度的空间相关性增强，区域差异将是影响耦合协调的主要因素。③ 未来多数省份的耦合协调度将为继续升级过程，但东部的海南和河北、中部的山西和江西、及西部多数省份需通过更有效的政策引导和区域协作防止协调降级的风险。把握不同地区耦合协调发展规律同时兼顾区域协作性是推进人才与经济高质量协同发展的关键。

Abstract: Graduate human capital is an important force to promote social production and technological progress. However, due to the structural imbalance of graduate human capital supply, the non-equilibrium of spatial distribution and the overall contribution rate to economic growth is not high, the two are not coordinated in development. Based on the data of 30 province-level administrative regions in China from 2012 to 2021, this paper measures the coupling coordination degree between postgraduate human capital and high-quality economic development, analyzes its spatial characteristics and upgrading trend, and tries to put forward differentiated regional development suggestions. The research conclusions include: 1) From 2012 to 2021, the coupling coordination degree of postgraduate human capital and high-quality economic development in China showed a fluctuating upward trend, and most provinces and cities upgraded to different degrees of coordination mode, and showed a “T” shape structure. 2) The spatial correlation of coupling degree is enhanced, and the regional difference will be the main factor affecting the coupling coordination. 3) In the future, the coupling coordination degree of most provinces will continue to upgrade, but Hainan and Hebei in the east, Shanxi and Jiangxi in the middle, and most provinces in the west need to prevent the risk of coordination downgrading through more effective policy guidance and regional cooperation. Grasping the law of coupling and coordinated development of different regions while taking into account regional cooperation is the key to promoting the high-quality coordinated development of talents and economy.