基于灰色关联度法的东部地区家庭差异研究

A Study on Household Differences in Eastern China Based on Grey Correlation Analysis

摘要: 本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS) 2010~2022年六期微观调查数据，聚焦我国东部地区，系统描述了家庭人口年龄结构与消费水平的动态演变特征，并运用灰色关联度分析方法，探究不同年龄段人口与家庭消费率及消费结构之间的内在联系。研究结果表明，东部地区已深度进入老龄化社会，家庭结构呈现从年轻型向混合型和老年型转变的“家庭老龄化”趋势；家庭消费率呈先升后降的“倒U型”轨迹，农村家庭消费率始终高于城镇但降幅更大；灰色关联度分析显示，消费率与劳动年龄人口关联度最高，且少儿人口与食品、文教娱乐消费关联紧密，老年人口与医疗保健消费高度同步；城乡家庭在老年人口与消费率的关联强度以及各项消费支出的排序上存在显著差异。本文旨在为理解人口转型期的家庭消费行为和制定差异化消费促进政策提供理论参考。

Abstract: Based on six waves of micro-level survey data (2010~2022) from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study focuses on the eastern region of China to systematically examine the dynamic evolution of household demographic age structure and consumption levels. Utilizing the grey relational analysis method, we investigate the intrinsic relationships between different age groups and household consumption rates as well as consumption structure. The findings indicate that the eastern region has entered a phase of deep population aging, with family structures transitioning from a youth-oriented pattern to a mixed and elderly-oriented one, reflecting a clear trend of “household aging”. The household consumption rate follows an inverted U-shaped trajectory—rising initially before declining. Rural households consistently exhibit higher consumption rates than urban households but experience a sharper decline. Grey relational analysis reveals that the consumption rate is most strongly associated with the working-age population. Moreover, the child population shows close links with expenditures on food, culture, and entertainment, while the elderly population is highly correlated with healthcare spending. Notable differences exist between urban and rural households in the strength of association between the elderly population and consumption rate, as well as in the ranking of various consumption categories. This study aims to provide a theoretical foundation for understanding household consumption behavior during demographic transition and for formulating differentiated consumption stimulation policies.