乌鲁木齐机场趋势预报质量统计分析

Statistical Analysis of the Quality of Tendency Forecast at Urumqi Airport

摘要: 本文对2022年趋势预报质量按季节、月度和参评要素进行统计分析，得出趋势预报的变化特征，结论如下：1) 机场冬季为趋势预报高发期，春秋次之，夏季最少，对11~12月、1~3月趋势预报发布的数量和质量控制，可大幅度提高趋势预报准确率。2) 参评要素以主导能见度为主，低云次之，天气现象、风组最少，全年天气现象轻雾出现最多，其次为雨、雪天气。3) 参评阈值中，能见度以1500 m、3000 m占比居多，低云以150 m、300 m、450 m和450 m以下云量变化居多；风组集中在v < 12 m/s，参评阈值多为前或后v ≥ 5 m/s时，Δ_风向 ≥ 60˚或出现VRB；参评天气现象1~3月、11~12月主要是冻雾，5~8月主要是雷暴。

Abstract: This paper conducts a statistical analysis of the quality of tendency forecast in 2022 by season, month, and evaluation elements, and concludes the following: 1) Winter is the peak period for tendency forecast at the airport, followed by spring and autumn, with the least in summer. Controlling the quantity and quality of tendency forecast issued in November-December and January-March can significantly improve the accuracy of tendency forecast. 2) The evaluation elements are mainly dominated by visibility, followed by low clouds, with the least being weather phenomena and wind groups. Throughout the year, light fog occurs most frequently among weather phenomena, followed by rain and snow. 3) Among the evaluation thresholds, visibility at 1500 m and 3000 m accounts for the majority, while for low clouds, the changes in cloud cover at 150 m, 300 m, 450 m and below 450 m are the most common. Wind groups are mainly concentrated at v < 12 m/s, and the evaluation thresholds are mostly when v ≥ 5 m/s before or after, with Δwind direction ≥ 60˚ or VRB appears. The main weather phenomena evaluated in January-March and November-December are freezing fog, while in May-August, it is mainly thunderstorms.