航空安全事故及其影响因素的关联分析
Association Analysis of Aviation Safety Accidents and Their Influencing Factors
DOI: 10.12677/jast.2026.142009, PDF,   
作者: 李 琪*, 王 潮, 张紫函：河北师范大学家政学院，河北 石家庄；韩瑞玲#：河北师范大学地理科学学院，河北 石家庄
关键词: 航空安全事故；影响因素；关联规则；TEM；Aviation Safety Accidents； Influencing Factors； Association Rules； TEM
摘要: 航空安全与事故预防一直是行业关注的核心议题。航空安全事故的发生是多个影响因素共同作用的结果，确定事故各影响因素对事故的影响程度，对提高航空安全至关重要，更对事故预防产生着深远影响。基此，本文应用机组威胁差错指标体系(TEM)统计分析了2005~2024年全球航空安全事故原因，并结合关联规则方法挖掘影响因素对特定事故类别的作用强度，进而判定事故原因的影响因素，揭示不同事故类型的风险驱动机制，关联规则挖掘结果表明航空安全事故致因呈现出维度聚焦性、层级传导性、多因素耦合性三大核心特征，提出提升航空安全水平需聚焦于关键影响因素的防范、强化中间层级致因管控以及提升人员在复杂情境下的应急处置能力，为航空运输业的可持续发展提供有益的参考。
Abstract: Aviation safety and accident prevention have always been core issues of concern in the industry. The occurrence of aviation safety accidents is the result of the combined effect of multiple influencing factors. Determining the degree of impact of each influencing factor on accidents is crucial for improving aviation safety and has profound implications for accident prevention. Based on this, this paper applies the Threat and Error Management (TEM) indicator system for flight crews to statistically analyze the causes of global aviation safety accidents from 2005 to 2024. By combining association rule methods, it explores the strength of the influence of various factors on specific accident categories, thereby identifying the influencing factors of accident causes and revealing the risk-driven mechanisms of different accident types. The association rule mining results indicate that the causes of aviation safety accidents exhibit three core characteristics: dimensional focus, hierarchical transmission, and multi-factor coupling. It is proposed that enhancing aviation safety levels requires focusing on the prevention of key influencing factors, strengthening the management of intermediate-level causes, and improving personnel’s emergency response capabilities in complex situations. This provides valuable references for the sustainable development of the aviation transportation industry.
文章引用：李琪, 王潮, 张紫函, 韩瑞玲. 航空安全事故及其影响因素的关联分析[J]. 国际航空航天科学, 2026, 14(2): 70-80. https://doi.org/10.12677/jast.2026.142009

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