基于典型干旱情景模拟的水资源供需双侧适配规则研究

Research on Supply-Demand Bilateral Adaptation Rules for Water Resources Based on Typical Drought Scenario Simulation

摘要: 全球气候变化背景下，极端干旱频发对区域水资源安全构成严峻挑战。传统静态配置模式难以适应极端干旱孕育过程中供水能力与需水压力的非线性协同演化特征。本文选取2001年豫北地区历史罕见极端干旱气象过程为驱动情景，评估豫北地区现状供水工程体系(含南水北调中线工程)在该类极端事件下的供需双侧动态适配关系。基于气象干旱综合指数(MCI)将干旱过程划分为露头、持续、高峰与缓解四个阶段，并引入收敛交叉映射模型，识别各阶段供需双侧耦合强度的不对称特征。结果显示：露头期与缓解期，供水侧对需水侧耦合解释力更强；持续期与高峰期则相反，需水侧对供水侧的反馈作用更强。据此提炼各阶段供需间关键响应关系：生活用水与地下水耦合强度持续偏高，提示应急保障应重点关注地下水；农业需水与水库供水响应最为紧密，提示水库调蓄需聚焦关键期灌溉；工业需水与外调水耦合逐步增强，提示可加强外调水对工业的支撑；生态需水与引黄水响应密切，提示引黄水是生态修复的核心水源。识别的关系可为区域抗旱应急管理与水资源韧性提升提供科学依据。

Abstract: Under the context of global climate change, the increasing frequency of extreme droughts poses a serious challenge to regional water security. Traditional static allocation models are inadequate to capture the nonlinear co-evolution characteristics of water supply capacity and water demand stress during the development of extreme droughts. This study adopts the historically rare extreme drought event that occurred in 2001 in Northern Henan as a driving scenario to evaluate the bidirectional dynamic supply-demand adaptation of the current water supply infrastructure (including the Middle Route of the South to North Water Diversion Project) under such extreme conditions. The drought process is divided into four stages (onset, duration, peak, and recovery) based on the Meteorological Drought Composite Index (MCI), and the convergent cross-mapping method is introduced to identify the asymmetric characteristics of supply-demand coupling strength at each stage. The results show that during the onset and recovery stages, the supply side has stronger explanatory power over the demand side in terms of coupling. In contrast, during the duration and peak stages, the demand side exerts a stronger feedback effect on the supply side. Based on these findings, key response relationships between supply and demand are distilled for each stage: the coupling strength between domestic water and groundwater remains consistently high, indicating that emergency support should focus on groundwater resources; agricultural water demand is most closely coupled with reservoir supply, suggesting that reservoir regulation should target critical irrigation periods; industrial water demand shows a gradually increasing coupling with external transferred water, implying that external water can be enhanced to support industry; and ecological water demand is closely linked to Yellow River diversion water, highlighting the latter as a core source for ecological restoration. These identified relationships can provide scientific references for regional drought emergency management and water resources resilience enhancement.