基于Z-Score模型的春兴精工财务风险分析

Financial Risk Analysis of Chunxing Precision Industry Based on the Z-Score Model

摘要: 近年来，受宏观经济、原材料价格及行业竞争等因素影响，我国制造业企业经营压力显著加大，春兴精工财务状况持续恶化，市场对其持续经营能力存疑。为系统评估春兴精工的财务风险程度，以该公司2020~2024年财务数据为基础，从投资、筹资、营运三个维度剖析其财务风险特征，并运用Z-Score模型对财务危机程度进行量化评估。结果表明：公司净资产收益率持续为负且亏损加剧，资产负债率接近100%，短期偿债能力严重不足，资产运营效率低位徘徊；Z值连续五年低于1.81的破产警戒线，财务风险已达极高水平。据此提出债务重组、业务聚焦、营运提效、风险预警、资本补充等应对措施，以助春兴精工化解财务危机、改善经营状况，并为同类制造企业财务风险防控提供参考。

Abstract: In recent years, due to the influence of macroeconomics, raw material prices and industry competition, the operating pressure on manufacturing enterprises in China has significantly increased. The financial situation of Chunxing Precision has continued to deteriorate, and there are doubts about its ability to continue operating. To systematically assess the financial risk level of Chunxing Precision, based on the company’s financial data from 2020 to 2024, this paper analyzes its financial risk characteristics from the three dimensions of investment, financing and operation, and quantitatively assesses the degree of financial crisis using the Z-Score model. The results show that the company’s return on net assets has been negative for a long time and the losses have intensified, the debt-to-asset ratio is close to 100%, the short-term debt-paying ability is seriously insufficient, and the asset operation efficiency is at a low level. The Z value has been below the bankruptcy warning line of 1.81 for five consecutive years, and the financial risk has reached an extremely high level. Based on this, measures such as debt restructuring, business focus, operational efficiency improvement, risk warning, and capital replenishment are proposed to help Chunxing Precision resolve financial crises, improve its operating conditions, and provide references for financial risk prevention and control in similar manufacturing enterprises.