基于FCFF模型企业价值评估研究——以华润三九为例

Study on Enterprise Value Evaluation Based on FCFF Model—A Case Study of China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

摘要: 在当下资本市场活动中，企业价值评估至关重要，而FCFF模型与华润三九的经营特征契合，故以此为工具。研究先阐述企业价值评估理论，介绍市场法、收益法、成本法及FCFF模型原理与参数确定。接着分析华润三九概况与行业竞争地位，其在OTC和处方药领域优势显著，但也面临挑战。然后进行FCFF模型适用性分析，从理论、数据基础与参数预测、行业特性等方面，说明该模型适用于华润三九。再详细阐述预测期确定、自由现金流预测、折现率预测及企业价值计算过程，得出2024年企业价值为632.67亿元，与实际股价偏差率1.84%。最后分析评估结果影响因素，提出优化现金流管理等建议，为FCFF模型在医药企业尤其是华润三九的估值应用提供了实证参考。

Abstract: Enterprise value evaluation is crucial in current capital market activities, and the FCFF model aligns with the operational characteristics of China Resources Sanjiu, hence it is adopted as the research tool. The study first elaborates on enterprise value evaluation theories, introducing the market approach, income approach, cost approach, as well as the principles and parameter determination of the FCFF model. Then it analyzes the overview and industry competitive position of China Resources Sanjiu, noting its prominent advantages in the OTC and prescription drug sectors while also facing challenges. Next, it carries out an applicability analysis of the FCFF model, demonstrating the model’s suitability for China Resources Sanjiu from the perspectives of theory, data foundation and parameter prediction, and industry characteristics. It then details the process of determining the forecast period, forecasting free cash flow, predicting the discount rate, and calculating enterprise value, concluding that the enterprise value in 2024 was 63.267 billion yuan, with a deviation rate of 1.84% from the actual stock price. Finally, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of the evaluation results and puts forward suggestions such as optimizing cash flow management, providing empirical reference for the application of the FCFF model in the valuation of pharmaceutical enterprises, especially China Resources Sanjiu.