基于事故树的焦化生产膨胀压力致灾机制与防控研究

Study on Disaster-Causing Mechanism and Prevention of Expansion Pressure in Coking Production Based on Fault Tree

摘要: 为精准识别焦炉炭化室膨胀压力异常致灾因素，构建科学的安全防控体系，本文采用事故树分析法(FTA)，以“膨胀压力异常引发焦化生产安全事故”为顶上事件，从原料、工艺、管控三维度搭建致灾风险模型，通过求解最小割集与径集，开展结构重要度、顶上事件发生概率及概率重要度的定性 + 定量全维度分析。研究结果表明，塑性体渗透性异常、挥发物传质特性异常为核心致灾风险点，测算得该类异常引发安全事故的实测概率为88.04%，厘清了各致灾因素的层级影响权重。基于分析结果，以配煤优化为核心，从源头消减、过程稳控、末端兜底层面构建全链条精细化防控体系，研究成果可为焦化生产膨胀压力风险精准管控提供理论支撑与实践指导。

Abstract: To accurately identify the disaster-causing factors of abnormal expansion pressure in coke oven carbonization chambers and construct a scientific safety prevention and control system, this study adopted Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Taking “safety accidents in coking production induced by abnormal expansion pressure” as the top event, a disaster-causing risk model was built from three dimensions of raw materials, process and management. By solving the minimum cut sets and path sets, a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative analysis was conducted on structural importance, occurrence probability of the top event and probability importance. The results show that abnormal plasticity permeability and abnormal volatile mass transfer characteristics are the core disaster-causing risk points, and the measured probability of safety accidents induced by such abnormalities is 88.04%, which clarifies the hierarchical influence weight of each disaster-causing factor. Based on the analysis results, with coal blending optimization as the core, a full-chain refined prevention and control system was constructed from the aspects of source reduction, process stabilization and terminal guarantee. The research results can provide theoretical support and practical guidance for the precise control of expansion pressure risks in coking production.