返乡潮与留守潮的叠加：农村留守老人照护风险新变化与政策应对

The Intersection of Return and Left-Behind Trends: Changing Care Risks for the Rural Left-Behind Elderly and Policy Strategies

摘要: 在农民工流动格局调整与农村老龄化持续加深的背景下，返乡潮与留守潮在农村家庭内部交织叠加，推动留守老人照护风险呈现出新的变化。本文从代际支持视角出发，分析返乡潮与留守潮如何共同重塑农村家庭照护结构。研究发现，返乡并未如预期那样缓解留守老人的照护压力，反而使家庭逐步形成带有“老养老”特征的照护结构，照护压力由单一代际问题转向双代叠加。基于此，本文提出，应推动农村照护模式由“家庭独担”转向“多元共担”，通过减轻亲代负担、分类配置照护资源、将返乡农民工纳入政策视野以及强化县域统筹和主动识别机制，提升农村照护风险应对能力。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of shifting labor migration patterns among migrant workers and the deepening aging of the rural population, the return tide and the left-behind tide intertwine and converge within rural households, driving new changes in the care risks faced by the left-behind elderly. From the perspective of inter-generational support, this paper analyzes how the return tide and the left-behind tide collectively reshape the structure of rural family care. The study finds that returning to their hometowns does not alleviate the care burden of left-behind elderly as expected; instead, it gradually fosters a care structure characterized by “the old caring for the older”, shifting care pressure from a single-generation issue to a dual-generation burden. Accordingly, this paper argues that rural care models should be transformed from “family-only” to “multi-shared” responsibility. This can be achieved by alleviating the burdens on the older generation, allocating care resources based on differentiated needs, incorporating returning migrant workers into policy considerations, and strengthening county-level coordination alongside proactive identification mechanisms, thereby enhancing the capacity to address rural care risks.