中国省域光伏发电的区域分异特征与差异化布局优化路径

Regional Differentiation and Pathways for Differentiated Spatial Optimization of Provincial Photovoltaic Power Generation in China

摘要: 在“双碳”战略背景下，光伏发电已成为我国能源结构转型的核心增量电源，但各省域在太阳能资源、建设空间、电力需求和开发方式等方面存在明显差异，导致我国光伏产业发展呈现出显著的区域分化特征，同质化发展路径已无法适配不同区域的资源与需求特征。基于2016~2020年全国31个省级行政区的光伏累计装机容量、年度发电量和电力需求数据，并结合2021年光伏开发方式与用地结构信息，本文从增长格局、单位装机发电量、用地差异、供需关系和驱动机制等方面，分析了我国省域光伏发展的区域分异特征及其布局方向。结果表明：2016~2020年全国各省域光伏装机与发电量保持稳步增长，省际扩张节奏分化明显，西部资源优势省域与中东部用电核心省域增长动能更强，国内光伏产业逐步形成资源富集区规模化开发、负荷密集区就近利用的并行发展格局；东西部区域光伏产出效率长期存在分化，西部省域单位装机发电产出整体优于东部；从用地与开发结构来看，东中部侧重发展光伏建筑一体化等分布式项目，西部、东北以地面集中式电站为主体，东部多地光伏项目与农田用地交叉重叠范围较大，土地利用约束问题更为突出；全国光伏电力供给与用电需求空间匹配度不足，西部省域本地光伏电力消纳占比更高，东部负荷中心区域光伏自给水平普遍偏低。面板模型检验结果显示，太阳能资源条件同时作用于光伏装机扩张与发电产出效率，城镇化水平、第二产业占比主要正向驱动新增装机规模，资源禀赋决定区域光伏发电产出能力，人口集聚与产业发展基础主导光伏建设扩张速度。基于区域发展条件差异，全国光伏产业需推行差异化发展策略：东中部依托负荷优势，重点布局光伏建筑一体化、工商业分布式光伏等节约土地的就近开发模式；西部严守生态管控底线，有序推进集中式光伏基地建设，同步完善储能配套、跨省输电通道与本地消纳体系。研究结论能够为我国省域光伏差异化发展规划、开发模式选取及能源空间布局优化提供实证支撑。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, photovoltaic (PV) power generation has become a major source of incremental growth in the country’s energy transition. However, pronounced interprovincial differences in solar resource endowment, land availability, electricity demand, and development models have led to substantial regional divergence in China’s PV development, such that a uniform development pathway can no longer accommodate region-specific resource and demand conditions. Using data on cumulative PV installed capacity, annual PV generation, and electricity demand for 31 provincial-level administrative units in China during 2016~2020, together with 2021 information on PV development models and land-use structure, this study examines the regional differentiation of provincial PV development in China from the perspectives of growth patterns, electricity generation per unit of installed capacity, land-use differences, supply-demand relations, and driving mechanisms. The results show that, from 2016 to 2020, both PV installed capacity and generation increased steadily across all provinces, although the pace of expansion varied markedly. Resource-rich western provinces and major electricity-consuming provinces in central and eastern China exhibited stronger growth momentum, giving rise to a dual development pattern characterized by utility-scale deployment in resource-abundant areas and local utilization in load-intensive regions. Persistent regional disparities were also observed in PV output performance, with western provinces consistently outperforming eastern provinces in electricity generation per unit of installed capacity. In terms of land use and development structure, eastern and central China relied more heavily on distributed projects such as building-integrated photovoltaics, whereas western and northeastern China remained dominated by ground-mounted centralized PV stations. In several eastern provinces, PV development showed substantial overlap with farmland-related land use, indicating stronger land-use pressure. In addition, the spatial alignment between PV electricity supply and electricity demand remained weak nationwide: western provinces exhibited a higher local absorption share of PV electricity, whereas major load centers in eastern China generally showed low levels of PV self-sufficiency. Panel-model results further indicate that solar resource conditions affect both PV capacity expansion and electricity output performance, whereas urbanization level and the share of the secondary industry mainly exert a positive influence on newly added installed capacity. In other words, resource endowment largely determines regional PV generation capability, while population agglomeration and industrial development conditions primarily shape the pace of PV deployment. Given these regional differences, China’s PV sector should adopt differentiated development strategies. Eastern and central China should prioritize land-efficient, load-oriented deployment models, including building-integrated photovoltaics and commercial and industrial distributed PV, whereas western China should advance utility-scale PV base development in an orderly manner under strict ecological safeguards, while simultaneously improving energy storage, interprovincial transmission infrastructure, and local consumption capacity. These findings provide empirical support for region-specific PV development planning, technology deployment choices, and the spatial optimization of China’s energy system.