国际贸易摩擦背景下海外EPC项目经营风险作用机理与量化分析

Mechanisms and Quantitative Analysis of Operational Risks in Overseas EPC Projects under International Trade Frictions

摘要: 在国际贸易摩擦和不确定性持续加剧的背景下，海外EPC项目面临的外部经营环境日趋复杂，项目经营风险呈现出多维化、叠加化和放大化特征。针对现有研究多停留在宏观经济层面、缺乏项目层面定量分析的问题，本文以海外基础设施EPC项目为研究对象，从工程管理视角出发，系统分析国际贸易摩擦对海外EPC项目资金供应、供应链及汇率风险的作用机理。在此基础上，构建资金占用成本模型、成本敏感性分析模型及汇率风险暴露模型，对相关经营风险进行量化分析，并进一步提出多重经营风险的叠加分析方法。研究结果表明，国际贸易摩擦通过资金、供应链及汇率等多重路径对海外EPC项目经营结果产生放大效应，基于量化模型的风险分析方法有助于识别关键风险因素，可为海外EPC项目经营决策与风险管控提供方法支持。

Abstract: In the context of escalating international trade tensions, overseas EPC projects operate in increasingly complex external environments, where operational risks are multidimensional, compounded, and amplified. Existing research largely focuses on the macroeconomic level and lacks quantitative, project-level analysis. This study addresses this gap by examining overseas infrastructure EPC projects from a project management perspective. It systematically investigates the mechanisms through which international trade frictions influence project financing, supply chain stability, and foreign exchange exposure. To quantify these operational risks, models for capital occupancy cost, cost sensitivity, and exchange rate risk exposure are developed. Furthermore, a framework for analyzing the superposition of multiple operational risks is proposed. Results indicate that trade frictions amplify project operational outcomes through multiple pathways, and the quantitative risk assessment approach facilitates the identification of critical risk factors, providing methodological support for risk-informed decision-making and management in overseas EPC projects.