重污染企业环境绩效与财务绩效非线性耦合机制及双向U型滞后效应研究

A Study on the Nonlinear Coupling Mechanism between Environmental and Financial Performance in Heavily Polluting Enterprises and the Bidirectional U-Shaped Lagging Effect

摘要: 在碳减排目标下，重污染企业环境绩效与财务绩效的协同关系成为绿色转型的关键议题。本研究以2012~2024年53家重污染行业上市公司为样本，构建含排污费、资产回报率、托宾Q值等九项指标的评价体系，系统探究双效间的非线性耦合机制与双向滞后效应。首先，采用WOA-XGBoost耦合回归模型揭示二者非线性拟合关系，模型拟合度均达0.92以上，SHAP分析表明企业规模为核心驱动因素且影响方向异质。其次，面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型验证双向U型滞后响应，资产回报率对排污费长期贡献率为8.7%，而环境绩效对托宾Q值的贡献率随周期延长升至20.9%。最后，采用K-Means聚类将企业划分为重经济型、重环保型和经济–环保型三类，仅16%的企业实现双效协同，但其环境与财务表现均显著优于其余类型。本研究实证检验了重污染企业环境绩效与财务绩效间的非线性耦合机制及双向动态滞后效应，为环境规制优化与企业绿色战略制定提供实证参考。

Abstract: Under carbon emission reduction targets, the synergy between environmental and financial performance in heavily polluting enterprises has become a key issue in green transformation. This study uses a sample of 53 listed companies in heavily polluting industries from 2012 to 2024 to construct an evaluation system comprising nine indicators, including pollution discharge fees, return on assets, and Tobin’s Q ratio, and systematically investigates the nonlinear coupling mechanism and bidirectional lag effects between the two types of performance. First, a WOA-XGBoost coupled regression model was employed to reveal the nonlinear relationship between the two variables. The model fit exceeded 0.92, and SHAP analysis indicated that firm size is the core driver, with heterogeneous directions of influence. Second, a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model verified a bidirectional U-shaped lag response. Return on assets contributed 8.7% to pollution discharge fees in the long term, while the contribution of environmental performance to the Tobin’s Q ratio rose to 20.9% as the time horizon extended. Finally, using K-Means clustering, firms were categorized into three groups: economy-focused, environment-focused, and economy-environment-focused. Only 16% of firms achieved dual-effect synergy, but their environmental and financial performance significantly outperformed the other categories. This study empirically examines the nonlinear coupling mechanism and bidirectional dynamic lag effects between environmental and financial performance in heavily polluting firms, providing empirical insights for optimizing environmental regulations and formulating corporate green strategies.