三北地区农业生态效率时空分异与影响因素研究

Study on Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Eco-Efficiency in the Three-North Region

摘要: 提升农业生态效率是统筹粮食安全、生态安全与农业绿色转型的关键举措。文章以三北地区13个省级行政区2003~2024年面板数据为样本，运用非期望产出超效率SBM模型测算农业生态效率，采用Dagum基尼系数揭示区域差异来源，并构建面板Tobit模型识别驱动机制。结果表明：1) 研究期内三北地区农业生态效率整体呈波动上升趋势，均值由1.0697升至1.1184，长期处于DEA有效状态；空间上呈现东北 > 西北 > 华北的梯度格局，省际与区域间差异显著。2) Dagum基尼系数分解显示，区域差异主要来源于组间差异，华北地区内部差距最大，西北地区呈波动下滑，东北地区高位稳定。3) 驱动机制显示，劳动生产率、城镇化水平、农业机械密度、森林覆盖率对农业生态效率具有显著正向驱动作用；农民可支配收入、农业受灾率、农业种植结构呈显著负向抑制效应；农业规模化生产能力影响不显著，绿色规模效应尚未充分释放。最后，从要素配置、结构优化、防灾减灾、生态屏障建设四个方面提出差异化建议。

Abstract: Improving agricultural eco-efficiency is crucial for coordinating food security, ecological security, and green transformation of agriculture. Based on panel data of 13 provincial-level administrative regions in the Three-North Region from 2003 to 2024, this paper uses the super-efficiency SBM model with undesirable outputs to measure agricultural eco-efficiency, adopts the Dagum Gini coefficient to analyze the sources of regional differences, and constructs a panel Tobit model to identify the driving mechanism. The results show that: 1) During the study period, agricultural eco-efficiency in the Three-North Region displayed an overall fluctuating upward trend, rising from 1.0697 to 1.1184, and remained DEA-effective for a long time. Spatially, it presented a gradient pattern of Northeast China > Northwest China > North China, with significant differences among provinces and regions. 2) The Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition indicates that regional differences are mainly dominated by inter-regional differences. North China has the largest internal gap, Northwest China shows a fluctuating downward trend, and Northeast China maintains a high level of stability. 3) The driving mechanism reveals that labor productivity, urbanization level, agricultural machinery density, and forest coverage have significant positive driving effects on agricultural eco-efficiency; farmers’ disposable income, agricultural disaster rate, and agricultural planting structure show significant negative inhibitory effects; the effect of agricultural large-scale production capacity is not significant, and the green scale effect has not been fully realized. Finally, differentiated improvement paths are proposed from factor allocation, structural optimization, disaster prevention and mitigation, and ecological barrier construction.