从“人口红利”到“人才红利”：老龄化背景下中国新型“银发电商”增长的逻辑转换

From “Demographic Dividend” to “Talent Dividend”: The Logical Transformation of China’s New “Silver E-Commerce” Growth in the Context of Population Aging

摘要: 随着人口老龄化与低生育率交织，中国经济及电子商务行业正经历从单纯的“人口数量红利”向“人才质量红利”的逻辑转换。传统电商长期高度依赖庞大网民基数所释放的“流量红利”，但在人口结构发生不可逆变化的当下，这种粗放式的增长模式已触及瓶颈。本文引入“人才红利”理论框架，剖析数字技术赋能下电子商务从“规模扩张”向“高质量价值创造”迈进的理论机制与实践路径。研究发现，具备较高受教育年限的新增劳动力有效对冲了劳动力缩减压力，老龄群体也在平台生态中实现双重角色重构。针对当前电商平台面临的“数字鸿沟”、适老化服务供给不足、私域流量涉老消费陷阱以及老年人力资源开发滞后等实践困境，本文提出应以数字包容和人才开发为核心抓手，通过强化技术赋能推进深度适老化改造、探索银发人才灵活就业的创新机制，以及协同监管部门完善网络消费生态治理，构建全龄友好的包容性商业生态，从而助力电子商务重塑高质量发展的价值创造体系。

Abstract: Amidst the intertwining trends of population aging and low fertility rates, China’s economy and its e-commerce industry are undergoing a logical transition from a pure “demographic dividend” based on quantity to a “talent dividend” driven by quality. Traditional e-commerce has long relied heavily on the “traffic dividend” generated by a massive netizen base; however, given the irreversible changes in the demographic structure, this extensive growth model has reached a bottleneck. By introducing the theoretical framework of the “talent dividend,” this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanisms and practical paths through which e-commerce, empowered by digital technology, transitions from “scale expansion” to “high-quality value creation.” The study finds that the influx of a new labor force with more years of schooling effectively offsets the pressure of labor contraction, while the elderly demographic is simultaneously experiencing a reconstruction of their dual roles within the platform ecosystem. In response to practical dilemmas currently facing e-commerce platforms—such as the “digital divide,” inadequate supply of age-friendly services, consumption traps targeting the elderly in private domain traffic, and the lagging development of senior human resources—this paper proposes utilizing digital inclusion and talent development as core strategies. By strengthening technological empowerment to advance profound age-friendly adaptations, exploring innovative mechanisms for the flexible employment of “silver talent,” and collaborating with regulatory authorities to improve the governance of the online consumption ecosystem, platforms can build an all-age-friendly, inclusive commercial ecosystem. This will ultimately assist the e-commerce sector in reshaping its value creation system for high-quality development.