北京市育龄青年生育意愿驱动因素研究

Study on Factors Influencing Fertility Intention among Reproductive-Age Young Adults in Beijing

摘要: 本文以北京市20~45岁育龄青年为调查对象，采用多阶段混合抽样获取1202份有效问卷，对北京市育龄青年生育意愿及生育价值观、生育压力感知、生育政策感知及政策需求状况进行分析，通过结构方程模型对生育意愿影响因素进行测算分析。研究发现：北京市育龄青年生育偏好保守，生育观念现代化；生育压力多维并存，生育焦虑普遍突出；基础生育政策知晓度极高，配套政策知晓度不够高；政策需求偏好清晰，短期减负类政策诉求最为迫切。

Abstract: This paper selects fertile young people aged 20 to 45 in Beijing as the research subjects and obtains 1202 valid questionnaires through multi-stage mixed sampling. It analyzes the fertility intention, fertility values, fertility stress perception, fertility policy perception and policy demands of fertile youth in Beijing. Furthermore, structural equation modeling is adopted to quantitatively measure the influencing factors of fertility intention. The research results indicate that the fertile young people in Beijing hold conservative fertility preferences and modern fertility concepts. They suffer from multi-dimensional fertility pressure and generally prominent fertility anxiety. The public has a high awareness of basic fertility policies, while the recognition of supporting policies is relatively insufficient. Additionally, the respondents present clear policy preferences, with the most urgent demand for short-term burden-reduction policies.