基于耦合协调与机器学习的西坑茶产业县域经济赋能效应研究

Research on the Empowering Effect of Xikeng Tea Industry on County Economy Based on Coupling Coordination and Machine Learning

摘要: 高质量发展是县域现代化的核心任务。广东省“百千万工程”为特色农业赋能县域经济提供了政策窗口，但二者深层作用机制尚待量化厘清。本文以汕尾市海丰县西坑茶产业为实证对象，旨在揭示“百千万工程”实施前后茶产业对县域经济的赋能效应与驱动路径。研究选取2018~2024年面板数据，综合运用耦合协调模型测度产业与经济的协同发展时序，引入随机森林算法识别关键驱动因子，并结合BP神经网络预测未来发展潜力，通过设置政策对照实验组剥离“百千万工程”的净效应。结果显示：政策实施后，茶产业与县域经济耦合协调度由0.527跃升至0.796，进入良好协调阶段；识别出政策补贴、三产融合、精深加工为核心驱动因子；模型预测2025年协调度将达0.853。研究表明，“百千万工程”通过要素倾斜有效破解了产业瓶颈，形成了“产业升级–经济增收”的正向循环。据此提出聚焦深加工、强品牌、促融合的对策建议，为革命老区县域经济高质量发展提供量化依据。

Abstract: High-quality development is the core task of county-level modernization. The “Hundred-Thousand-Ten-Thousand Project” in Guangdong Province has provided a policy window for empowering the county economy with characteristic agriculture. However, the deep underlying mechanisms of their effects still need to be quantified and clarified. This paper takes the Xikeng tea industry in Haifeng County, Shantou City as the empirical object, aiming to reveal the enabling effect and driving path of the tea industry on the county economy before and after the implementation of the “Hundred-Thousand-Ten-Thousand Project”. The study selects panel data from 2018 to 2024, comprehensively uses the coupling coordination model to measure the coordinated development of the industry and the economy over time, introduces the random forest algorithm to identify key driving factors, and combines the BP neural network to predict future development potential. Through setting a policy control experimental group to separate the net effect of the “Hundred-Thousand-Ten-Thousand Project”, the results show that after the policy implementation, the coupling coordination degree of the tea industry and the county economy rose from 0.527 to 0.796, entering a good coordination stage; the core driving factors identified are policy subsidies, the integration of the tertiary industry, and deep processing; the model predicts that the coordination degree will reach 0.853 in 2025. The study shows that the “Hundred-Thousand-Ten-Thousand Project” effectively solved the industrial bottlenecks through factor inclination and formed a positive cycle of “industrial upgrading - economic income increase”. Based on this, countermeasures and suggestions focusing on deep processing, strengthening brands, and promoting integration are proposed, providing quantitative basis for the high-quality development of county-level economies in revolutionary old areas.