新质生产力对商贸流通业增长的影响研究——基于市场化程度的调节作用

Research on the Influence of New Quality Productive Forces on the Growth of Commercial Circulation Industry—Based on the Adjustment of Marketization Degree

摘要: 依托2012~2023年中国省域面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型，检验新质生产力发展对商贸流通业增长的作用，同时系统探究市场化程度的调节作用。实证结果显示：新质生产力发展对商贸流通业增长存在显著推动作用；调节效应分析发现，市场化程度具有显著正向调节作用，即市场化水平越高，新质生产力对商贸流通业增长的推动效应越显著；异质性分析表明，新质生产力的推动作用存在明显区域差异，在东部和西部地区对商贸流通业增长的推动作用较为显著。据此提出加快技术渗透、深化市场化改革等政策建议。

Abstract: Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2012 to 2023, this paper adopts the two-way fixed effects model to examine the impact of new quality productive forces development on the growth of the commercial and circulation industry, and systematically explores the moderating effect of marketization degree. The empirical results indicate that the development of new quality productive forces exerts a significant driving effect on the growth of the commercial and circulation industry. The moderating effect analysis verifies that marketization degree presents a prominent positive moderating effect; that is, a higher marketization level can strengthen the driving influence of new quality productive forces on the commercial and circulation industry. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrates obvious regional differences in the above driving effect, which is more significant in the eastern and western regions. Accordingly, this paper puts forward targeted policy suggestions such as accelerating technological penetration and deepening market-oriented reform.