数字技术驱动下辽宁省生鲜冷链物流与电子商务融合发展测度及对策研究

Measurement and Countermeasure Research on the Integrated Development of Fresh Cold Chain Logistics and E-Commerce in Liaoning Province Driven by Digital Technology

摘要: 基于辽宁地区2014~2024年的相关数据资料，利用熵值法–耦合协调度模型测算了其生鲜冷链物流与电子商务产业之间的融合程度，并通过灰色关联分析方法考察了数字技术对其融合发展的影响作用。结果表明，在此期间内两个系统的综合发展水平一直处于高速的增长状态中，其中冷链物流平均每年增长速度达到31.03%，而电子商务平均每年增长的速度为26.55%；两者间的耦合度一直维持在一个较高的水平上即大于等于0.936，且由最初的严重不协调(0.054)到后期的较为良好的协调发展(0.966)，整个过程经历了失调培养期、协调提高期以及良好的发展阶段三个阶段的发展演变。同时发现，数字技术对于二者的融合发展有着明显的促进影响作用，其中R&D经费投入量、互联网普及率及宽带接入数量这三项因素具有最高的关联性，它们是主要发挥着推动作用的因素。但是，诸如电信业总产出这些方面的指数却存在着较低的相关性，需要进一步改善调整。本研究可以为区域内生鲜冷链物流与电子商务之间实现深度结合并借助于数字技术来更好地服务于农产品物流领域方面提供了相应的证据支持与决策建议。

Abstract: Based on relevant data of Liaoning Province from 2014 to 2024, this paper measures the integration degree between fresh produce cold chain logistics and e-commerce industry by using the entropy method-coupling coordination model and examines the impact of digital technology on their integrated development through grey correlation analysis. The results show that the comprehensive development level of the two systems maintained rapid growth during this period, with an average annual growth rate of 31.03% for cold chain logistics and 26.55% for e-commerce. The coupling degree between the two systems remained at a high level of no less than 0.936, and the coupling coordination degree evolved from serious incoordination (0.054) to relatively good coordination (0.966), experiencing three stages: maladjustment cultivation, coordination improvement and sound development. Meanwhile, digital technology has a significant promoting effect on the integrated development, among which R&D investment, internet penetration rate and broadband access quantity have the highest correlation and are the major driving factors. However, indicators such as total output of the telecommunications industry show relatively low correlation and need to be further improved and adjusted. This study provides empirical support and decision-making suggestions for the deep integration of regional fresh produce cold chain logistics and e-commerce, as well as for better serving the agricultural product logistics sector with the support of digital technology.