数字经济发展能缩小城乡收入差距吗？——来自280个地级市的实证证据

Can Digital Economy Development Narrow the Urban-Rural Income Gap? —Empirical Evidence from 280 Prefectural-Level Cities in China

摘要: 在扎实推进共同富裕的时代背景下，弥合城乡收入鸿沟是实现经济高质量发展的关键。本文基于2011~2024年中国地级市面板数据，实证检验了数字经济发展对城乡收入差距的影响效应、内在机制与边界条件。研究发现：数字经济能够显著降低泰尔指数，发挥“红利普惠”效应；在采用空间滞后工具变量克服内生性后，该收敛效应依然高度稳健。机制检验表明，数字经济主要通过降低信息搜寻成本促进劳动力要素跨区域流动，以及推动地区产业结构向高级化演进两条路径，有效改善了城乡收入分配格局。进一步分析揭示了数字红利释放的结构性特征：一方面，数字经济存在显著的区域“门槛效应”，其普惠红利在东部地区更为突出，而中西部地区受制于传统基建与数字素养的软硬约束，面临“次生数字鸿沟”风险；另一方面，在面对重大外部公共卫生冲击(2020~2022年)时，数字经济展现出极强的“经济韧性”与“危机缓冲”作用，通过创造灵活就业等新业态有效托底了低收入群体的生计。本文的研究为优化数字经济下沉战略、构筑共同富裕的长效机制提供了重要的经验证据。

Abstract: Promoting common prosperity and narrowing the urban-rural income gap are critical tasks for China’s high-quality development. Based on panel data of Chinese prefectural-level cities from 2011 to 2024, this paper empirically examines the impact and underlying mechanisms of digital economy development on the urban-rural income gap using a two-way fixed effects model. The results show that the digital economy significantly reduces the urban-rural income gap as measured by the Theil index. This conclusion remains robust after addressing endogeneity through a spatial lag instrumental variable (IV) approach. Notably, the IV estimates are significantly larger than the baseline coefficients, suggesting that the digital economy’s actual narrowing effect might be underestimated due to attenuation bias. Mechanism analysis reveals that the digital economy narrows the gap primarily by facilitating labor mobility and promoting industrial structure upgrading. Heterogeneity analysis indicates a significant “threshold effect”, where the digital economy’s impact is more pronounced in the Eastern region with superior infrastructure and human capital, while it remains insignificant in the Midwest. Furthermore, the digital economy played a crucial “crisis buffer” role during major external shocks (2020~2022), providing essential livelihood support for low-income groups through flexible employment. This study provides important policy insights for bridging the digital divide and achieving inclusive growth.