中国银发经济的结构性转型与高质量发展路径

Structural Transformation and Pathways to High-Quality Development of China’s Silver Economy

摘要: 随着我国人口老龄化程度持续加深，银发经济已从单纯的养老服务供给升级为关乎经济社会可持续发展的重要赛道。本文在系统梳理国内外相关研究的基础上，基于政策演进与现实实践，系统剖析银发经济从“养老服务”到“全生命周期经济活动”的内涵拓展，重点聚焦供给侧错配、消费侧抑制、服务侧缺口与技术侧落地不足四大结构性矛盾，深入探究政策边界模糊、市场循环失衡与治理体系碎片化的深层成因。通过借鉴日本介护保险制度与精细化产品供给、欧盟社会投资模式等国际经验，结合我国“未富先老”与“超大市场”的双重国情，从需求激活、供给改革、技术赋能、人才支撑与空间优化五个维度，提出兼具针对性与可操作性的高质量发展路径，为推动银发经济成为经济增长新引擎、增进老年人福祉提供理论参考与政策启示。

Abstract: As China’s population aging continues to deepen, the silver economy has evolved beyond merely providing elderly care services into a critical domain integral to the nation’s sustainable socioeconomic development. Based on a systematic review of relevant domestic and international studies, this paper examines the expanding conceptual scope of the silver economy—from “elderly care services” to “lifecycle-spanning economic activities”—through the lens of policy evolution and practical realities. It focuses on four core structural contradictions: supply-side mismatches, demand-side constraints, service delivery gaps, and insufficient technological implementation, and further explores the underlying causes, including ambiguous policy boundaries, imbalanced market dynamics, and fragmented governance systems. By drawing on international experiences—such as Japan’s long-term care insurance system coupled with its refined product supply, and the European Union’s social investment approach—and considering China’s dual national conditions of “aging before getting rich” and its “massive domestic market”, this paper proposes a high-quality development pathway across five dimensions: demand activation, supply-side reform, technology enablement, talent support, and spatial optimization. It offers targeted and actionable strategies to position the silver economy as a new engine for economic growth and to enhance the well-being of older adults, providing both theoretical insights and policy recommendations.