人口老龄化下居家养老服务供需失衡与可持续发展研究

Research on Supply-Demand Imbalance and Sustainable Development of Home-Based Elderly Care Services under Population Aging

摘要: 在人口老龄化加速与家庭结构小型化背景下，我国居家养老服务产业供需失衡问题突出，成为制约养老产业发展的关键。本文基于政策文本分析与缺口分析模型，系统梳理居家养老服务供需现状，发现需求侧已向多元化、高品质转型且呈现显著异质性，供给侧则存在主体协同不足、服务单一、资源配置低效等问题。供需失衡主要表现为结构错位、空间不均、主体单一的三重特征，核心成因包括需求侧异质化与支付能力约束、供给侧专业资源短缺与模式滞后，以及制度层面政策协同和监管机制缺失。据此，本文提出健全政策投入体系、精准匹配供需、强化智慧赋能三大优化路径，为构建弹性化、精准化服务供给体系提供支撑，助力居家养老服务产业可持续发展，并对未来精准化、多元化、智慧化发展方向进行展望。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of accelerating population aging and shrinking family structures, China’s home-based elderly care service industry faces a pronounced supply-demand imbalance, which has become a critical constraint on the sector’s development. Through policy document analysis and a gap analysis model, this study systematically examines the current state of home-based elderly care services. It reveals that demand is transitioning toward diversified and high-quality offerings with significant heterogeneity, while the supply side suffers from insufficient coordination among service providers, limited service variety, and inefficient resource allocation. The imbalance manifests three key characteristics: structural misalignment, spatial uneven distribution, and homogeneity among service providers. Core causes include demand-side heterogeneity constrained by payment capacity, supply-side shortages of professional resources and outdated operational models, as well as deficiencies in policy coordination and regulatory mechanisms. To address these issues, the paper proposes three optimization pathways: strengthening policy investment frameworks, achieving precise demand-supply alignment, and enhancing smart technology integration. These measures aim to establish a flexible and targeted service delivery system, foster sustainable development of the home-based elderly care industry, and outline future directions toward more precise, diversified, and intelligent service delivery.