数字普惠金融对经济质量提升的机理分析——基于2012~2023年中国省级面板数据

Mechanism Analysis of Digital Inclusive Finance on Economic Quality Improvement—Based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data from 2012 to 2023

摘要: 基于2012~2023年中国31个省级行政区的面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型探究数字普惠金融对经济质量提升的创新驱动效应，并进行东、中、西部区域异质性分析。研究结果显示：第一，数字普惠金融、创新驱动二者均对经济质量提升具有显著促进作用且创新驱动发挥中介作用。第二，数字普惠金融对经济质量提升的影响存在显著的区域异质性。东部地区数字普惠金融和创新驱动的直接效应均显著，中部和西部地区则数字普惠金融效应显著，创新驱动不显著。第三，调节变量在数字普惠金融促进经济质量提升中发挥正向调节作用，且调节效应在西部地区最为突出。鉴于此，建议深化数字技术与金融服务融合，强化企业创新能力，并构建区域间交流协作机制以统筹数字普惠金融发展。

Abstract: Based on panel data from 31 provincial-level divisions of China spanning 2012 to 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to investigate the innovation-driven effect of digital inclusive finance on high-quality economic development, and further conducts regional heterogeneity analysis across the eastern, central, and western regions. The findings reveal the following: First, both digital inclusive finance and innovation drive significantly promote high-quality economic development, with innovation drive playing a mediating role. Second, the impact of digital inclusive finance on high-quality economic development exhibits significant regional heterogeneity. In the eastern region, both the direct effects of digital inclusive finance and innovation drive are significant, whereas in the central and western regions, only the direct effect of digital inclusive finance is significant, while that of innovation drive is not. Third, the moderating variable exerts a positive moderating effect on the relationship between digital inclusive finance and high-quality economic development, with the most pronounced moderating effect observed in the western region. Accordingly, it is recommended to deepen the integration of digital technology and financial services, strengthen enterprise innovation capacity, and establish inter-regional exchange and cooperation mechanisms to coordinate the development of digital inclusive finance.