政府数据开放如何加快新质生产力形成？——基于双重机器学习的因果推断

How Does Open Government Data Accelerate the Formation of New Quality Productive Forces?—Causal Inference Based on Double Machine Learning

摘要: 政府数据开放作为推动经济高质量发展的重要举措，其对新质生产力形成的作用日益受到关注。本文以政府数据开放平台上线为准自然实验，运用双重机器学习模型评估了省级政府数据开放对新质生产力形成的政策影响及其作用机制。结果表明：(1) 政府数据开放显著促进了新质生产力的形成，影响效应为1.3%；(2) 政府数据开放在通过产业结构优化效应、数字经济发展效应和科技创新效应，促进了新质生产力的发展。(3) 政策效应在东部地区和长江经济带表现更为显著，而中西部地区及非长江经济带政策效果相对较弱，地级市层面政策效应也因资源和技术能力不足而受到削弱。

Abstract: As a key initiative to promote high-quality economic development, open government data has drawn increasing attention regarding its role in fostering new quality productive forces. This paper takes the launch of provincial open government data platforms as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a double machine learning model to evaluate the policy impact of provincial-level open government data on the formation of new quality productive forces, as well as the underlying mechanisms. The findings are as follows: (1) Open government data significantly promotes the formation of new quality productive forces, with an effect size of 1.3%. (2) It facilitates the development of new quality productive forces through three channels: industrial structure optimization, digital economy development, and technological innovation. (3) The policy effect is more pronounced in eastern regions and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, while it is relatively weaker in central and western regions and non-Yangtze River Economic Belt areas. Moreover, at the prefecture-level city level, the effect is attenuated due to insufficient resources and technological capabilities.