减税降费政策的微观效应与传导机制研究——基于上市公司的理论与实证分析

Research on the Microcosmic Effects and Transmission Mechanism of Tax Reduction and Fee Reduction Policies—Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on Listed Companies

摘要: 本文以2017~2024年中国A股上市公司面板数据为研究样本，引入中介效应分析模型(Mediation Analysis)，以税收优惠为核心自变量、企业绩效为因变量，现金流、研发投入为中介变量，实证检验减税降费政策的微观治理效应、量化识别其内在传导机制与路径效应大小。研究表明：2017~2024年，中国A股上市公司平均所得税税负率呈现显著的倒U型动态演化特征；2024年数据均取自上市公司公开披露的年度正式年报数据，与2017~2023年历年审计后年报数据口径完全统一、具备纵向可比性，无预测值、季报插值数据，有效规避了数据时序偏差问题，该年度受房地产行业深度调整等宏观经济因素扰动，企业税负水平出现阶段性波动，但整体始终处于合理区间。实证结果显示，减税降费政策能够有效改善企业现金流状况，显著推动企业研发创新投入与固定资产投资扩张。机制检验证实，减税降费遵循“税负减免–现金流改善–创新投入增加–企业绩效提升”的中介传导路径作用于企业微观经营，各中介路径效应量化显著。此外，2024年细分数据表明，在房地产等承压行业经营困境加剧的背景下，减税降费政策有效对冲了经营压力，显著缓释了企业现金流断裂风险，发挥了稳定市场主体的托底作用。稳健性检验结果表明，无论截断2024年数据仅保留2017~2023年完整年报样本，还是剔除房地产等极端冲击行业重新回归，本文核心研究结论均未发生实质性改变，证明研究结果具备良好的稳健性与普适性。

Abstract: Based on the panel data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2017 to 2024, this paper introduces Mediation Analysis Model, takes tax incentives as the independent variable, enterprise performance as the dependent variable, and cash flow and R&D investment as mediating variables to empirically test the microeconomic effects of tax and fee reduction policies, and quantitatively identify their internal transmission mechanism and path effect magnitude. The results show that the average corporate income tax burden rate of Chinese A-share listed companies presents a significant inverted U-shaped trend during the sample period. The 2024 data are all derived from the officially disclosed annual report data of listed companies, which are completely consistent with the caliber of the audited annual report data from 2017 to 2023 and have full vertical comparability, without predicted values or quarterly interpolation data, effectively avoiding temporal data deviation. Affected by macroeconomic changes represented by the in-depth adjustment of the real estate industry, the tax burden of enterprises fluctuated temporarily in 2024 but remained within a reasonable range overall. Tax and fee reduction policies effectively improve corporate cash flow and significantly boost enterprises’ R&D investment and fixed asset investment. Mechanism tests confirm that the policies exert microeconomic impacts through the transmission path of tax burden reduction, cash flow optimization, innovation input growth, and enterprise performance improvement, with quantitatively significant effects of each mediating path. Furthermore, the 2024 empirical evidence indicates that tax and fee reductions have effectively eased operational pressures and reduced the risk of corporate cash flow breakdown for industries facing severe challenges such as real estate, which helps stabilize micro market entities. Robustness test results show that the core research conclusions have no substantive changes whether truncating the sample to the complete annual report period of 2017~2023 or excluding industries affected by extreme shocks such as real estate, verifying the good robustness and universality of the research findings.