需求不确定性下考虑风险规避的O2O供应链定价决策研究

A Study on O2O Supply Chain Pricing under Demand Uncertainty with Risk Aversion

摘要: 随着直播电商爆发式增长，O2O供应链需求预测的不确定性显著上升，放大了各供应链成员的收益预期波动，供应链企业必须采取更为保守的风险规避策略来维持利润与现金流。本文将风险规避偏好纳入O2O供应链定价决策框架，构建以生产制造企业(M)为领导者、线下零售企业(R)为追随者的Stackelberg博弈模型，探讨需求不确定性条件下风险规避行为对供应链定价决策的影响。结果表明：(1) 适度的需求波动有助于提升O2O供应链整体效用，并扩大潜在市场规模，制造商作为领导者对此更为敏感。(2) 风险规避倾向推动企业采取保守定价以稳定销量，但可能压缩利润，并对制造商和零售商产生对称性影响。(3) 当制造商风险规避水平较高时，批发价、线上价格与线下价格均趋于下降，形成低价竞争格局；若对手风险规避水平较低，企业可通过降价吸引需求并提升期望效用。

Abstract: With the rapid expansion of live-streaming e-commerce, demand forecasting uncertainty in O2O supply chains has increased markedly, magnifying earnings volatility across supply-chain members and necessitating more conservative risk-averse pricing strategies to sustain profits and cash flow. This study incorporates risk-averse preferences into the pricing decision framework of an O2O supply chain and adopts a Stackelberg game in which the manufacturing firm (M) acts as the leader and the offline retailer (R) as the follower to examine how risk-averse behavior interacts with demand uncertainty to influence pricing decisions. The main findings are as follows: (1) moderate demand fluctuations can enhance the overall welfare of the O2O supply chain and expand the attainable market, with the leader (manufacturer) exhibiting greater sensitivity to these fluctuations; (2) a propensity for risk aversion drives firms to adopt conservative pricing to stabilize volumes, potentially compressing profits and exerting symmetric effects on both manufacturers and retailers; (3) when the manufacturer's risk aversion is high, the wholesale price, online price, and offline price tend to decline, giving rise to a low-price competition regime; if the rival’s risk aversion is weaker, firms can reduce prices to attract demand and elevate expected utility.