新质生产力视角下数字贸易对区域经济韧性的影响研究

The Impact of Digital Trade on Regional Economic Resilience from the Perspective of New Quality Productivity

摘要: 基于新质生产力理论框架，利用2015~2023年中国省级面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型与中介效应模型，实证考察数字贸易对区域经济韧性的影响、机制及异质性。研究发现：数字贸易显著提升了区域经济韧性，该结论在经过内生性处理与多项稳健性检验后依然稳健。机制分析表明，新质生产力在数字贸易影响区域经济韧性过程中发挥关键中介作用，但各维度的影响存在时序差异——数字贸易通过提升劳动者素质与推动劳动对象数字化，直接且及时地增强区域经济韧性，而对劳动资料的促进作用则存在滞后效应。异质性分析显示，数字贸易对区域经济韧性的提升效应在2018年后随国家战略推进显著增强；在工业基础相对薄弱的地区，该效应更为突出；从地理空间看，东部地区直接效应显著，而中西部地区则主要通过提升新质生产力间接发挥作用。本研究为通过数字贸易与新质生产力协同发展提升区域经济抗风险能力提供了理论依据与政策参考。

Abstract: From the perspective of new quality productivity, this study empirically examines the impact of digital trade on regional economic resilience, its mechanisms, and heterogeneity characteristics. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2015 to 2023, a two-way fixed effects model and a mediation effect model are employed for analysis. The findings indicate that digital trade significantly enhances regional economic resilience, a conclusion that remains robust after endogeneity treatment and multiple robustness tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that new quality productivity plays a crucial mediating role in the impact of digital trade on regional economic resilience, yet the effects of its dimensions exhibit temporal differences. Specifically, digital trade strengthens economic resilience by improving labor quality and promoting the digitalization of labor objects, while its effect on the means of labor is subject to a lag. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the enhancing effect of digital trade on regional economic resilience has become significantly stronger since 2018, driven by national strategies. This effect is more pronounced in regions with relatively weak industrial foundations and in the eastern region, while in the central and western regions, digital trade primarily exerts an indirect effect by enhancing new quality productivity. This study provides theoretical basis and policy reference for improving regional economic risk resistance through the synergistic development of digital trade and new quality productivity.