数字化治理的“效能悖论”与区域分化——基于江苏省农村公共服务的实证

The “Efficiency Paradox” and Regional Differentiation of Digital Governance—An Empirical Study Based on Rural Public Services in Jiangsu Province

摘要: 本文基于“技术–制度–效能”分析框架，利用江苏省13个地市2015~2024年的面板数据，实证研究了数字化治理对农村公共服务效率的影响。研究发现，数字化治理整体上显著提升了农村公共服务效率，但存在非线性特征。其影响在区域间呈现显著的梯度分化：苏南地区因进入“创新提质”阶段，出现边际收益递减甚至负向效应；苏中地区因制度协同不足而陷入“转型瓶颈”；苏北地区则处于“规模投入”驱动期，虽统计上不显著，但展现出巨大的潜在边际效应。文章认为，资源配置失衡，数字鸿沟和制度协同不足是导致区域异质性的深层原因，并据此为苏南，苏中，苏北三大区域提出了差异化的政策建议。

Abstract: Based on the “Technology-System-Efficiency” analysis framework, this paper uses panel data from 13 cities in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2024 to empirically investigate the impact of digital governance on the effectiveness of rural public services. The research finds that digital governance has significantly improved the effectiveness of rural public services overall, but its effects are not linear. The impact varies significantly across regions: southern Jiangsu has entered the “innovation and quality improvement” stage, showing diminishing marginal returns or even negative effects; central Jiangsu is stuck in the “transformation bottleneck” due to insufficient system collaboration; and northern Jiangsu is in the “scale investment” driving phase, showing significant potential marginal effects, though not statistically significant. The paper argues that unbalanced resource allocation, the digital divide, and insufficient system collaboration are the underlying reasons for these differences, and accordingly, it proposes differentiated policy recommendations for the three major regions: southern Jiangsu, central Jiangsu, and northern Jiangsu.