轨道交通发展对城市更新的影响

The Impact of Rail Transit Development on Urban Renewal

摘要: 文章基于2002~2023年我国59个已开通轨道交通城市的平衡面板数据，以轨道交通运营里程的对数作为发展规模的核心度量，以存量建设用地面积的对数衡量城市更新规模，采用双向固定效应模型、滞后变量模型、非线性模型及分组回归方法，实证研究了轨道交通发展对城市更新的影响。结果发现：轨道交通发展对城市更新具有显著的正向促进效应，该效应在通车后1~2年达到峰值。全样本层面，发展规模与城市更新呈线性关系，表明我国城市轨道交通网络仍处于扩张期；但分阶段回归显示，发展规模的边际效应随网络完善递减，快速扩张期的效应显著高于网络完善期。上述结果经稳健性检验后依然成立。研究为制定分阶段、差异化的轨道交通建设与城市更新协同策略提供了实证参考。

Abstract: Based on balanced panel data from 59 Chinese cities that had operational rail transit systems between 2002 and 2023, this study uses the logarithm of rail transit operating mileage as the core measure of development scale, and the logarithm of existing construction land area to proxy the scale of urban renewal. Employing a two-way fixed-effects model, a lagged variable model, a nonlinear model, and grouped regressions, the paper empirically examines the impact of rail transit development on urban renewal. The results show that rail transit development exerts a significant positive effect on urban renewal, peaking 1~2 years after the opening of new lines. At the full-sample level, development scale and urban renewal exhibit a linear relationship, indicating that China’s urban rail transit networks are still in an expansion phase. However, stage-specific regressions reveal that the marginal effect of development scale declines as networks mature, with the effect during the rapid-expansion phase being significantly stronger than that during the network-maturation phase. These findings remain robust after a series of robustness checks. This study provides empirical insights for designing phased and differentiated coordination strategies between rail transit construction and urban renewal.