贸易壁垒下中国新能源汽车对欧出口研究

A Study on China’s New Energy Vehicle Exports to Europe under Trade Barriers

摘要: 在碳中和目标与全球贸易格局重塑背景下，本文旨在探讨中国新能源汽车对欧洲市场的出口趋势及核心驱动因素。基于2018~2024年中国对德国、英国、瑞典的出口数据，本研究运用皮尔逊相关性分析检验宏观经济、技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)、能源价格与基建对出口的影响，并采用Holt-Winters乘法模型预测2025年出口趋势。结果显示，出口额与GDP及充电桩保有量呈显著正相关；通过引入定性分析深化探究发现，TBT在短期内显著抬高了合规成本与市场准入门槛，但从长期动态博弈来看，也客观上促使具备实力的中国车企主动对接高标准国际经贸规则，加速产品绿色化认证与智能化升级。模型预测表明，尽管面临反补贴关税与趋严的政策壁垒等外部挑战，2025年对上述三国的出口整体仍将保持一定韧性与增长态势。研究结论指出，应对贸易摩擦常态化，产业持续发展依赖技术创新、基建配套与本地化战略的协同推进。车企应加速推进中东欧等地的产能属地化建设以应对关税及准入风险，并协同参与欧洲充电网络布局；政府需强化信贷与研发扶持，助推产业向高质量转型，以优化在欧洲市场的战略布局。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of carbon neutrality goals and the reshaping of the global trade landscape, this paper aims to explore the export trends and core driving factors of China’s new energy vehicles (NEVs) to the European market. Based on export data from China to Germany, the United Kingdom, and Sweden from 2018 to 2024, this study employs Pearson correlation analysis to examine the impacts of macroeconomic factors, Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), energy prices, and infrastructure on exports. Furthermore, the Holt-Winters multiplicative model is applied to forecast the export trends for 2025. The results indicate a significant positive correlation between export value and both GDP and the volume of charging stations. Through in-depth qualitative analysis, it is found that while TBTs have significantly raised compliance costs and market entry thresholds in the short term, from a long-term dynamic perspective, they have objectively driven capable Chinese automakers to proactively align with high-standard international trade rules, accelerating green product certification and intelligent upgrades. The model predictions demonstrate that, despite external challenges such as anti-subsidy tariffs and tightening policy barriers, overall exports to the three aforementioned countries will maintain a certain degree of resilience and a growth trajectory in 2025. The study concludes that, in response to the normalization of trade frictions, sustained industrial development relies on the synergy of technological innovation, infrastructure development, and localization strategies. Automakers should accelerate localized capacity building in regions such as Central and Eastern Europe to mitigate tariff and market access risks, while collaboratively participating in the deployment of the European charging network. Concurrently, the government should strengthen credit and R&D support to facilitate the industry’s high-quality transformation, thereby optimizing its strategic layout in the European market.