基于机器学习的创新型中心城区低空经济培育路径与发展策略研究——以深圳市南山区为例

Research on the Cultivation Path and Development Strategy of the Low-Altitude Economy in Innovative Central Urban Districts Based on Machine Learning —A Case Study of Nanshan District, Shenzhen

摘要: 低空经济作为以低空空域资源为依托、以无人机和电动垂直起降飞行器(eVTOL)等航空器为载体、以数字技术、高端制造与运行服务为支撑的新型经济形态，正成为培育新质生产力和重塑城市竞争优势的重要抓手。本文以深圳市南山区为案例，在文献分析、SWOT分析和政策评估的基础上，进一步引入问卷调查与机器学习分析框架，系统探讨创新型中心城区低空经济的发展基础、现实约束、公众接受机制与实施路径。研究提出，南山区应在“研发设计–系统集成–场景运营–制度创新”链条上形成差异化竞争优势；同时，可通过围绕安全、效率、成本、噪声、隐私、政策支持和支付意愿等维度构建问卷量表，并结合Logistic回归、随机森林等方法识别居民对低空物流、低空通勤和低空文旅等场景的使用意愿及其关键影响因素。本文在规划分析基础上补充了面向实证评估的研究设计，为深圳市南山区乃至其他创新型中心城区推进低空经济高质量发展提供兼具规划性与可操作性的研究框架。

Abstract: As a new economic model that leverages low-altitude airspace resources, utilizes aircraft such as drones and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles, and is supported by digital technology, advanced manufacturing, and operational services, the low-altitude economy is emerging as a key driver for fostering new productive forces and reshaping urban competitive advantages. Taking Nanshan District in Shenzhen as a case study, this paper systematically examines the developmental foundations, practical constraints, public acceptance mechanisms, and implementation pathways of the low-altitude economy in innovative central urban areas. Building upon literature reviews, SWOT analyses, and policy evaluations, the study further incorporates questionnaire surveys and a machine learning analytical framework. The study proposes that Nanshan District should establish a differentiated competitive advantage along the “R&D and design - system integration - scenario operation - institutional innovation” chain. Additionally, by constructing a questionnaire scale around dimensions such as safety, efficiency, cost, noise, privacy, policy support, and willingness to pay, and combining methods such as logistic regression and random forests, the study identifies residents’ willingness to use low-altitude logistics, commuting, and cultural tourism scenarios, as well as their key influencing factors. Building upon planning analysis, this paper supplements the research design with an empirical evaluation approach, providing a research framework that combines planning-oriented guidance with practical applicability for promoting the high-quality development of the low-altitude economy in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, and other innovative central urban areas.