农业社会化服务对农民增收的影响研究——基于山东省地市级面板数据的实证

Research on the Impact of Agricultural Socialized Services on Farmers’ Income Increase: An Empirical Study Based on Prefecture—Level Panel Data in Shandong Province

摘要: 为探究农业社会化服务对农民增收的实际影响，本文选取2015~2023年山东省16个地级市面板数据，构建双向固定效应模型进行实证检验。结果表明：农业社会化服务水平显著促进农民增收，服务水平每提高1个百分点，农民收入平均提升约1.80%；机制检验显示，农业社会化服务主要通过提升农业生产效率、增加经营性收入实现增收，对工资性收入未产生显著影响；农业机械化、城镇化同样具有显著增收效应，而化肥施用、有效灌溉、财政支农的增收效果并不明显。本文通过剔除异常值、1%~99%缩尾处理、核心变量滞后一期三种方式开展稳健性与内生性检验，各项结果均保持稳定，证明研究结论可靠。据此，本文提出加大农业社会化服务扶持、优化财政支农结构、培育非农就业渠道、推进城乡融合发展等建议。

Abstract: To explore the actual impact and internal mechanism of agricultural socialized services on farmers’ income increase, this paper selects panel data of 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2023, and constructs a two-way fixed effects model with cluster-robust standard errors for empirical tests. The results show that the level of agricultural socialized services can significantly increase farmers’ income. Each 1 percentage point increase in service level raises farmers’ income by about 1.80% on average. Mechanism test indicates that agricultural socialized services mainly increase operating income by improving agricultural production efficiency, while having no significant impact on wage income. Agricultural mechanization and urbanization also present remarkable income-increasing effects, whereas fertilizer application, effective irrigation and fiscal support for agriculture show insignificant impacts. This paper conducts robustness and endogeneity tests by removing outliers, winsorizing data at the 1% and 99% levels and lagging core variables for one period, and all results remain stable, verifying the reliability of the conclusions. Based on the above findings, this paper puts forward suggestions such as increasing support for agricultural socialized services, optimizing the structure of fiscal support for agriculture, fostering non-agricultural employment channels and promoting integrated urban-rural development.