农村金融深化、财政支农与农业经济增长——基于区域异质性与最优边界的实证检验

Financial Deepening, Fiscal Support for Agriculture, and Agricultural Economic Growth—An Empirical Examination Based on Regional Heterogeneity and Optimal Boundaries

摘要: 基于2015~2022年中国31个省级行政单位面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型、分组回归与面板门槛模型，系统检验农村金融深化与财政支农对农业经济增长的差异化影响、区域异质性与过度金融化风险。研究发现：(1) 财政支农对农业经济增长的拉动作用整体强于农村金融，财政支出弹性(0.168)约为涉农贷款弹性(0.077)的2.2倍，在当前农业支持体系中财政仍占主导地位；(2) 金融支持存在显著区域异质性：中西部21个省级行政单位涉农贷款弹性为0.102 (p < 0.05)，东部10个省级行政单位作用系数未通过显著性检验，体现金融发展的“边际效应递减”规律；(3) 贷款深度(涉农贷款/农业产值)与农业产出呈倒U型关系，门槛值为14.6倍，超过该阈值后金融深化对农业增长产生抑制作用，证实过度金融化风险的存在。本文提出建立财政主导的协同机制、将涉农贷款深度控制在合理区间(低于14.6倍)、实施“中西部扩量、东部提质”的差异化区域政策。研究为优化农村金融资源配置、防范过度信贷风险提供了经验依据。

Abstract: Using panel data of 31 provincial panels in China from 2015 to 2022, this paper empirically investigates the effects of rural financial deepening and fiscal support for agriculture on agricultural economic growth, with particular attention to regional heterogeneity and the risk of over-financialization. A two-way fixed effects model, subsample regressions, and a panel threshold model are employed. Three main findings emerge. First, fiscal support for agriculture exerts a significantly stronger effect on agricultural growth than rural finance does, with an elasticity of fiscal expenditure (0.168) approximately 2.2 times that of agriculture-related loans (0.077), indicating that fiscal policy remains dominant in China’s current agricultural support system. Second, the effect of financial deepening exhibits pronounced regional heterogeneity: the elasticity of agriculture-related loans is 0.102 (p < 0.05) in central and western China covering 21 provincial-level administrative units, while it is insignificant in eastern China consisting of 10 provincial-level administrative units, consistent with the law of diminishing marginal returns. Third, there exists a clear nonlinear relationship between loan depth (agriculture-related loans divided by agricultural output value) and agricultural growth, with a threshold value of 14.6. Below this threshold, financial deepening significantly promotes agricultural growth; above it, further expansion of credit significantly inhibits growth, providing direct evidence of over-financialization risk. These findings suggest that a fiscally led coordination mechanism should be established, with the loan depth kept within 14.6 times of agricultural output value. Differentiated regional policies are also recommended. This study provides empirical evidence for optimizing rural financial resource allocation and preventing excessive credit risks.