数字普惠金融促进农民增收——城镇化与产业结构升级的双重机制及空间异质性

Digital Inclusive Finance Promotes Farmers’ Income Growth—Dual Mechanisms of Urbanization and Industrial Structure Upgrading and Spatial Heterogeneity

摘要: 农民增收是推进乡村全面振兴、实现共同富裕的核心任务。本文基于2014~2023年282个地级市面板数据，本文运用双向固定效应及工具变量法，证实了数字普惠金融对农民增收的显著赋能效应。分析表明，其主要通过加速城镇化与推动产业结构升级这一“双轮驱动”路径发挥作用。异质性视角下，增收效应呈现“中部隆起”及“主产区优先”格局，不同区域对覆盖广度、深度及数字化程度的依赖各异，需关注部分地区数字金融深化过程中可能存在的资源配置失衡风险。进一步分析揭示，随着数字普惠金融深化，其对增收的边际红利已进入递减阶段。

Abstract: Increasing farmers’ income is the core task of advancing comprehensive rural revitalization and achieving common prosperity. Based on the panel data of 282 prefecture-level cities from 2014 to 2023, this paper employs the two-way fixed effect model and instrumental variable method, and confirms that digital inclusive finance has a significant empowering effect on farmers’ income growth. Mechanism analysis shows that such effect is mainly exerted via the two-wheel driving paths of accelerating urbanization and promoting industrial structure upgrading. From the heterogeneity perspective, the income-increasing effect features a pattern of central regional prominence and priority advantages in major agricultural producing areas. Regions vary greatly in their dependence on coverage breadth, usage depth and digitalization degree of digital inclusive finance. Moreover, it is necessary to guard against the risk of shifting from real economy to virtual economy caused by excessive digitalization in western China and production-sales balanced areas. Further analysis demonstrates that alongside the deepening development of digital inclusive finance, its marginal dividend effect on farmers’ income growth has entered a diminishing stage.