地方政府债务对区域金融韧性的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Local Government Debt on Regional Financial Resilience

摘要: 地方政府债务风险持续累积与金融安全重要性日益凸显的双重背景下，本文系统考察了地方政府债务对区域金融韧性的影响效应、传导机制及边界条件。基于2014~2024年中国30个省级行政区面板数据，从防御抵抗、适应恢复、转换学习三个维度构建区域金融韧性评价体系，运用双向固定效应模型进行实证检验。研究发现：第一，地方政府债务与区域金融韧性之间存在稳健的负相关关系；第二，市场化水平和财政自给率均发挥正向调节作用，即二者水平越高，债务对金融韧性的负面冲击越弱；第三，地方政府债务通过挤压金融财政支出和推动影子银行扩张两条路径削弱区域金融韧性。上述发现为统筹推进地方政府债务风险防控与区域金融韧性建设提供了理论依据与实证参考。

Abstract: Against the dual backdrop of the continuous accumulation of local government debt risks and the increasing importance of financial security, this paper systematically examines the impact of local government debt on regional financial resilience, its transmission mechanisms, and boundary conditions. Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2014 to 2024, a regional financial resilience evaluation system is constructed from three dimensions: defense resistance, adaptive recovery, and transformation learning, and an empirical test is conducted using a two-way fixed effects model. The study finds: first, there is a robust negative correlation between local government debt and regional financial resilience; second, both the level of marketization and the fiscal self-sufficiency rate play positive moderating roles, meaning that the higher these levels, the weaker the negative impact of debt on financial resilience; third, local government debt weakens regional financial resilience through two pathways: crowding out financial fiscal expenditure and promoting shadow banking expansion. The above findings provide both theoretical basis and empirical reference for coordinating the prevention and control of local government debt risks and the construction of regional financial resilience.