“十五五”时期银发经济供需错配生成机理与治理路径研究

A Study on the Mechanisms and Governance Pathways of Supply-Demand Mismatches in the Silver Economy during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

摘要: “十五五”时期我国加速迈向超老龄社会，银发经济供需适配问题日益凸显。本文围绕银发经济供需错配的生成机理及其优化路径，采用文献分析与政策文本分析方法，构建“需求多维演进–供给阶梯错配–制度包容调节”的分析框架，对供需结构性矛盾进行解释。研究表明，在需求侧支付能力分化与数字素养门槛约束、供给侧产业布局分散与人力资本短缺等因素共同作用下，供需之间呈现出结构性错配，适配效率相对不足。在此基础上，提出供给侧结构性响应、产业生态重构、要素保障与数字包容治理等优化路径。研究有助于从机制层面深化对银发经济运行逻辑的认识，并为相关政策提供参考。

Abstract: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China is accelerating its transition toward a super-aged society, and the issue of supply-demand mismatch in the silver economy is becoming increasingly prominent. This paper focuses on the mechanisms underlying the supply-demand mismatch in the silver economy and pathways for its optimization. Employing methods of literature analysis and policy text analysis, it constructs an analytical framework of “multidimensional evolution of demand-tiered mismatch in supply-institutional inclusive regulation” to explain the structural contradictions between supply and demand. The study indicates that structural mismatches between supply and demand, characterized by relatively low matching efficiency, arise from the combined effects of factors such as the polarization of payment capacity and digital literacy barriers on the demand side, and the dispersion of industrial layout and shortages of human capital on the supply side. Based on these findings, the study proposes optimization pathways including supply-side structural responses, industrial ecosystem restructuring, factor support, and digital inclusion governance. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the operational logic of the silver economy at the institutional level and provides a reference for relevant policy-making.